Morteza Sahab KHodamoradi

  Abstract: In the past few decades, excessive consumption of non renewable energy combined with the development of economic activities has led to negative consequences in terms of global warming, climate change, rising sea levels and ultimately intensifying global conflicts. In recent years, countries have made extensive efforts to use more alternative f  il energy production. These efforts have been in line with global agreements to reduce global temperatures. Achieving this goal requires stabilizing or reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide. This requires a transition from economic axtivity based on non renewable energy sources to economic activity based on alternative energy sources. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of alternative energy production innovation on reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period 1357-1403 using the self-explanatory method with extended lags. According to the results of the study, alternative energy production innovation has had a negative and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period 1357-1403. Keywords: Innovation, Energy, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Iran.

  Abstract: Food security is considered a fundamental component of sustainable development and social welfare in any country. Despite possessing significant natural resources and oil revenues, Iraq has faced serious food security challenges in recent decades, including heavy reliance on imports, low agricultural productivity, and climate fluctuations. This study aims to analyze the impact of economic growth and the agricultural sector's value-added on food security in Iraq. To this end, annual time-series data covering the period from 2000 to 2023 were obtained from reputable international databases (the World Bank and FAO). The prevalence of undernourishment was adopted as the metric for food security (serving as an inverse indicator).

   This thesis examines the factors affecting the spread of unemployment in urban areas of Kermanshah city. The main objective of the research is to identify and analyze the economic, social, and structural factors that contribute to unemployment in these areas. The methodology of this research includes the use of existing statistical data, a survey of experts, and field analysis in different areas of Kermanshah city. The results of the research show that economic factors such as labor market fluctuations, lack of investment, and inadequate infrastructure, along with social factors such as internal migration and a decrease in job skills, play a significant role in increasing the unemployment rate. Also, structural effects such as lack of proper urban planning and a lack of sustainable jobs have also contributed to the spread of this problem. Ultimately, this research provides solutions to reduce unemployment and improve the employment situation in urban areas of Kermanshah and can be used as a reliable source for policymakers and local officials to design effective development programs.

  toram mazman dar egtesad iran, yeki az chaleshesaye bonyadin est keh risheh dar avamel sakhtari, nosanat arzi, tahrimehaye egtesadi ve bacpehvizheh entezarat tormi ayandehangar dard. in pajoosh ba cpehdaf barresi chegongi sheklegiri entezarat tormi ve naqsh enteghal asar narkh arz dar egtesad iran, ti doreh fasli 1?3?8?0? ta 1?4?0?4? (1?0?0? moshadeh) enjam shodeh est.

چكيدههدف: پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسي تأثير فساد بر سرمايه اجتماعي در كشورهاي منطقه خاورميانه و شمال آفريقا انجام شده است. با توجه به نقش اساسي نهادها و اعتماد اجتماعي در فرآيند توسعه اقتصادي، اين مطالعه به تحليل اثرگذاري فساد به‌عنوان يك عامل نهادي بر سطح سرمايه اجتماعي پرداخته است. تمركز اصلي پژوهش بر تبيين اين رابطه در بستري است كه با ويژگي‌هايي نظير ساختارهاي رانتي، ضعف سازوكارهاي پاسخگويي و ناهمگوني نهادي همراه است؛ شرايطي كه مي‌تواند بر تعامل ميان فساد و سرمايه اجتماعي تأثيرگذار باشد.روش‌شناسي پژوهش: اين پژوهش از نوع كاربردي و با رويكرد كمي انجام شده است. داده‌هاي مورد استفاده شامل اطلاعات ?? كشور منتخب منطقه در دوره زماني ???? تا ???? بوده كه در قالب داده‌هاي تابلويي تحليل شده‌اند. به‌منظور بررسي روابط ميان متغيرها، از مدل رگرسيون حداقل مربعات معمولي با خطاهاي استاندارد تعديل‌شده و همچنين مدل پوياي گشتاورهاي تعميم‌يافته (GMM) استفاده شده است. اين رويكرد امكان كنترل ناهمگني‌هاي مقطعي، پويايي متغير وابسته و مسائل درون‌زايي را فراهم مي‌سازد.يافته‌ها: نتايج پژوهش نشان داد كه فساد داراي اثر منفي و معناداري بر سرمايه اجتماعي است. به‌عبارت ديگر، افزايش سطح فساد با كاهش اعتماد عمومي، مشاركت مدني و انسجام اجتماعي همراه است. همچنين يافته‌ها نشان داد كه سرمايه اجتماعي داراي پايداري زماني بوده و مقادير گذشته آن نقش مهمي در تعيين وضعيت فعلي ايفا مي‌كند. از سوي ديگر، متغيرهاي كنترلي شامل سطح توسعه اقتصادي و كيفيت حكمراني داراي اثر مثبت، و نرخ بيكاري داراي اثر منفي بر سرمايه اجتماعي بوده‌اند. نتايج به‌دست‌آمده در هر دو مدل ايستا و پويا از سازگاري و استحكام برخوردار بوده و توانسته‌اند روابط ميان متغيرها را به‌خوبي تبيين نمايند.نتيجه‌گيري: يافته‌هاي پژوهش حاكي از آن است كه كاهش فساد و بهبود كيفيت نهادهاي حكمراني مي‌تواند نقش مهمي در تقويت سرمايه اجتماعي ايفا كند. اين امر از طريق افزايش اعتماد عمومي، ارتقاي مشاركت مدني و بهبود تعاملات اجتماعي امكان‌پذير است. بر اين اساس، سياست‌گذاران و نهادهاي حاكميتي مي‌توانند با اتخاذ راهبردهاي مؤثر در جهت افزايش شفافيت، تقويت پاسخگويي و بهبود كارايي نهادي، زمينه ارتقاي سرمايه اجتماعي را فراهم سازند. پژوهش حاضر علاوه بر غناي ادبيات اقتصاد نهادي و توسعه، مسيرهاي جديدي براي بررسي تعامل ميان متغيرهاي نهادي و اجتماعي در اقتصادهاي در حال توسعه ارائه مي‌دهد و پيشنهادهايي براي مطالعات آتي در اين حوزه مطرح مي‌سازد.كليدواژه‌ها: فساد، سرمايه اجتماعي، كيفيت حكمراني، داده‌هاي تابلويي، گشتاورهاي تعميم‌يافته، منطقه خاورميانه و شمال آفريقا.

   One of the main problems for countries with oil resources is the existence of Dutch disease, during which, with the abundance of oil revenues, on the one hand, it is faced with a decrease in the exchange rate and on the other hand, with a decrease in competitiveness. The combination of these factors causes the economy to be highly vulnerable to external fluctuations. In this regard, the present study uses Iranian economic statistics during the period 1992-2023 and applies the ARDL approach to assess the impact of Dutch disease on the Iranian economy, focusing on the dynamics of the exchange rate and export diversity. The results of the present study show that there is a kind of causality from oil exports to the exchange rate and export diversity, but ARDL estimates show that oil revenues have improved the value of the national currency in the short term, but in the long term this effect is not statistically significant. Also, oil revenues have reduced export diversity in both the short and long term and have significantly increased the possibility of the emergence of Dutch disease. Therefore, the existence of Dutch disease in the Iranian economy has been confirmed, but given the decrease in foreign income, n recent years, this phenomenon has become less. Industrialization in the economy has significantly reduced the impact of the emergence of Dutch disease, and this is due to the nature of the development of the industrial sector in the growth of technology and innovation, ultimately foreign investment in the Iranian economy has not had a significant effect on export diversification. Therefore, improving diplomacy to remove economic sanctions and using the capacity of foreign direct investment to strengthen export diversification and using oil revenues to improve infrastructure to encourage the entry of the private sector are the most important policies to avoid Dutch disease.

 Abstract: The increasing trend of income inequality, along with high inflation, unemployment, and social injustice in the Middle East, has made this region one of the most unequal regions in the world. These acute socio-economic conditions have made it more than ever clear that policymakers need to pay serious attention to the issue of reducing inequality and more equitable income distribution. In the meantime, corruption is recognized as one of the most important structural factors exacerbating inequality in the countries of this region. This study examines in-depth the mechanisms of the impact of corruption on income inequality in the Middle East. In this regard, to examine the relationship between corruption and other control variables such as the global governance index, gross domestic product, trade openness, and unemployment rate with income inequality, panel data econometric techniques are used with annual data over the period 2012-2022 for 12 Middle East countries based on the World Bank classification.

  International economic sanctions, as one of the foreign policy tools of major powers, have been extensively used against energy-exporting countries in recent decades, leaving profound impacts on the economic structure of these countries; this is while severe and successive fluctuations in revenues from energy exports, as an endogenous and structural shock, have posed additional challenges to macroeconomic stability and the investment climate in these countries. In this regard, the present research, aiming at a comparative analysis of the effects of international sanctions on the economic resilience of Iran and Russia as two major energy-exporting economies under extensive sanctions, has analyzed the role of energy revenues and government effectiveness in shaping the resilience capacity of these two countries. This study employs annual data from the period 2005 to 2022 and utilizes the Time-Series Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as its analytical tool. The empirical findings reveal striking structural differences between the two economies. Regarding sanctions, a negative and significant coefficient is observed in both countries, but its intensity in Iran (-0.79) is approximately four times stronger than in Russia (-0.21), indicating the higher vulnerability of Iran's economic structure. For the energy revenue variable, the results are even more contradictory: this variable has a weakening effect on resilience in Iran (coefficient -0.01), confirming the "resource curse" phenomenon; while in Russia, a strengthening relationship (positive coefficient 0.00003) is established, indicating more efficient management of oil revenues. The most significant contrast occurs in the role of government effectiveness: this institutional indicator is the strongest factor increasing resilience in Russia (coefficient +1.74); however, in Iran, it shows an inverse and weakening relationship (coefficient -0.46), reflecting the characteristics of a rentier political economy and the inefficiency of government interventions. Finally, the interaction effect of sanctions and energy revenue is positive and significant in both countries, which testifies to the role of energy revenues as a mitigating shield in reducing the destructive effects of sanctio   although the size of this mitigating effect is also estimated to be stronger in Iran. In summary, this research concludes that the difference in the economic resilience of Iran and Russia in the face of external shocks is not only due to the scale of the shocks but is primarily the product of differences in the quality of governance institutions and the structural capacity of the economy to transform resource revenues into productive and resilient investment.

   Abstract:   Unemployment is one of the most significant socio-economic challenges facing developing economies, including Iran. A well-functioning labor market is essential for economic stability, social cohesion, and sustainable growth. Monetary policy and financial development are two crucial levers that policymakers can use to combat unemployment. These tools have been extensively studied in both developed and developing countries; however, their specific impacts in economies like Iran, with unique institutional and structural characteristics, require deeper exploration. Therefore, this study employs time series data from 2001 to 2022 to analyze how monetary policy instruments—including the money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate—along with a composite of three financial development indicators (Financial Development Efficiency Index, Financial Depth Index, and Structural Financial Development Index), affect the unemployment rate. Short-term dynamics will be assessed using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, while long-term relationships will be examined through a Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM). The findings indicate that, in the short term, no clear causal relationship between monetary policy and unemployment is observed, and even unconventional reactions are present. However, in the long term, a significant equilibrium relationship stabilizes, whereby both expansionary monetary policy and financial development have a reducing effect on the unemployment rate. Financial development shows a weak impact in the short term but becomes the strongest factor reducing unemployment in the medium term, and its reducing effect persists into the long termveu, albeit with less intensity. Conversely, the interest rate has an unexpected negative effect on unemployment in the short term and a positive effect in the long term. Furthermore, currency depreciation reduces unemployment in the short term by boosting exports, but in the long term, as inflationary effects dominate, this relationship reverses. In conclusion, the results emphasize the necessity of adopting a long-term perspective in policymaking and aligning monetary policy with structural reforms in the labor market and financial system to achieve sustainable employment.    Key Words: Unemployment, Monetary Policies, Financial Development, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM), Iran.

   Income inequality is one of the main challenges facing middle-income countries on the path to sustainable development and inclusive growth. In this regard, financial inclusion and the development of the financial system can play an important role in reducing inequality. This study aims to investigate the role of financial inclusion, through the channel of financial development, on income inequality in a comparative study of Iran and a panel of selected middle-income countries from 2005 to 2023. The central research question is whether and how a country's level of financial development affects the effectiveness of financial inclusion in reducing income inequality. To test the research hypotheses, a panel data model using the Fixed Effects method was employed, incorporating an interaction term to measure the channel role of financial development. Income inequality is measured by the Gini coefficient, while financial inclusion and financial development are measured using standard international indicators. The key findings of the research indicate that financial inclusion, by itself, has a strong, negative, and statistically significant effect on income inequality. Financial development is also independently associated with a reduction in inequality. However, the study's most significant finding, derived from the analysis of the interaction term, reveals a more complex and non-linear relationship. The positive and significant coefficient of the interaction term implies that as the level of financial development increases, the inequality-reducing power of financial inclusion diminishes. In other words, the effectiveness of financial inclusion in mitigating inequality is considerably greater in countries with lower levels of financial development. This finding carries important policy implications: policymakers should adopt a conditional, two-stage approach. In the early stages of development, focusing on expanding access to basic financial services can be a highly effective tool for reducing inequality. In later stages, however, the policy focus must shift towards structural reforms that ensure the "inclusiveness" and "efficiency" of the entire financial system, allowing its benefits to be broadly distributed and contributing to a sustainable reduction in inequality.

  This study examines the impact of environmental management accounting on firm performance by considering the mediating role of environmental innovation and environmental information tra  arency, as well as the moderating role of stakeholder integration and dynamic capabilities.The required data were collected by distributing a questionnaire among 306 senior executives and financial managers of small and medium-sized companies located in the west of the country. Smart PLS software was also used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses .The findings of the study indicate that environmental management accounting has a positive and significant impact on firm performance. Environmental innovation mediates the relationship between environmental management accounting and firm performance. And also, stakeholder integration strengthens the relationship between environmental innovation and firm performance. Overall, the findings of this study emphasize that implementing environmental management accounting systems as a strategic tool not only improves environmental performance, but also leads to improved financial performance through efficient cost management and identification of innovation opportunities. This study shows that achieving these desired results depends on stakeholder engagement. In fact, environmental innovation is the path through which environmental management accounting leads to superior performance, and the presence of committed stakeholders strengthens this path and increases its efficiency.

  The present study was conducted to identify the key success factors in the Kermanshah Province Industrial Estate Company. In the first stage, the factors affecting the success of this company were comprehensively identified and categorized, and based on that, a key factor model was developed. In the next step, practical and effective solutions were presented to improve the performance and increase the productivity of the industrial estate company. This study was conducted with a mixed approach and applied purpose. In the qualitative section, data were collected through purposive sampling and in-depth semi-structured interviews. The statistical population included university professors with relevant specialized experience, experts from the Kermanshah Province Industrial Estate Company, industry owners and businesses located in the province's industrial estates, as well as relevant documents and texts. Sampling in the qualitative section continued until theoretical saturation was reached; in such a way that no new data was added to the previous data in the seventeenth interview onwards. Qualitative data were coded using thematic analysis method and Brown and Clark's six-step thematic analysis process was used. The results of the thematic analysis were categorized into basic themes, organizing themes, and overarching themes. In the quantitative section, the key success factors model in the industrial estate company was evaluated. Data were collected through a questionnaire derived from qualitative findings and the statistical population was similar to the qualitative section. 35 valid questionnaires were collected. The face and content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts and its construct validity and composite reliability were confirmed through structural equation modeling. Quantitative data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics such as mean and frequency and inferential statistics including structural equation modeling using    version 27 and SmartPLS version 4 software. In this section, the conceptual model resulting from the qualitative analysis was validated and its validity was confirmed.

  رشد بي سابقه و اهميت جهاني بيت كوين و طلا علاقه به درك

 In economic literature, financial development is considered as one of the necessities of economic growth and development of countries. Hence, paying attention to financial development and analyzing its effects on economic growth is of particular importance. Achieving the desired economic growth and development is impossible without the existence of efficient financial institutions and appropriate financial resources. On the other hand, today, the ability to achieve innovations by using creative human resources is known as the first step to turn knowledge into wealth. . Therefore, considering the key importance of innovation and institutional development in the economy of developing countries, the present study examines the impact of institutional development and innovation on financial development in 12 OPEC member countries during the period of 2010-2022 using the fully modified least squares method (FMOLS). ) pays. Based on the results obtained, the effect of institutional development and innovation on financial development in OPEC member countries during the period from 2010 to 2022 has been positive and significant.

   Abstract Extensive studies have investigated the role of institutional factors in the expansion of financial space and have shown that institutional factors play an essential role in increasing the government's income. Among the institutional variables, corruption has been one of the main indicators studied. Among the most important variables affected by corruption is taxes. Tax reforms are necessary to expand the tax base, increase the efficiency of government revenue and support development goals, which in turn strengthens the financial environment. But corruption can prevent these beneficial effects in the financial space. Corruption can prevent tax reforms or delay their implementation. Or by weakening the quality of public spending, eroding citizens' trust in the government and also eliminating any progress in policies that support tax compliance, it reduces fiscal space. The current research examines the effects of tax reforms and corruption control index on the business environment in MENA countries. Considering the non-linear effects using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) method, an attempt has been made to investigate the role of the corruption control index in modeling the impact of tax reforms on the business climate. In this research, the panel mild transition regression (PSTR) method has been used to investigate the effect of tax reforms by considering the fluctuations of the corruption control index. Time data related to the time period from 2000 to 2018 in MENA region countries were used and statistical analysis was done. The results of the research show that tax reforms have a positive and significant effect on the business environment. Also, the corruption control index plays a negative and significant role in determining the health of the business environment. Based on this, it seems that reducing tax corruption can help improve business conditions. By providing important and useful results, the current research will help the decision makers and policy makers of the region to formulate and implement more appropriate tax policies and also pay special attention to reducing corruption in this area.

  In recent years, the concept of social welfare has received serious attention from sociologists, economists and other fields related to development, and it has always been a social concern in a country, especially in developing countries, including Iran

Forecasting the movement of stock market indices is one of the most important topics that is very important for investors, analysts and capital market experts. Due to the fact that the stock market is known as one of the most important financial markets in the world, forecasting stock market indices can be used as an important tool in the decisions of investors and analysts in the capital market. In the meantime, predicting the index of groups can help financial decision makers to make better decisions about the composition of their stock portfolio. There are many algorithms and methods for prediction. These algorithms are usually developed based on time series data analysis. For example, statistical and mathematical methods such as: linear regression, neural networks and machine learning algorithms can be used for prediction. The main goal of this thesis is to compare two artificial neural network models of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive processes of cumulative moving average (ARIMA) to predict the indices of four selected stock market groups (automobiles and parts manufacturing, basic metals, pharmaceutical materials and products, and finished products). petroleum products). The time period of the data used in this thesis is from 01/01/1394 to 10/11/1401 on a daily basis. RMSE and MAPE evaluation criteria were used to compare the prediction accuracy of the models. The results showed that the MLP model has a better performance than the ARIMA model in predicting the two groups of automobiles and the manufacture of petroleum products and parts, and the ARIMA model performed better in the case of the two groups of pharmaceutical materials and products and basic metals.  

  owadays, calculating efficiency in various organizations and industries is one of the necessary measures in order to compare the level of competitiveness in the domestic and foreign scene of a country, and banks are no exception to this rule. Therefore, it is very important to calculate the efficiency of banks and to know the factors affecting it. Therefore, the current research was conducted with the aim of determining the effect of capital adequacy ratio on the efficiency of the banking industry. For this purpose, 11 private and public banks of Iran were selected as a statistical sample during the years 2012 to 2022 and the required data were extracted from the audited annual financial statements of the banks. To measure the cost efficiency, the data coverage analysis method is used, and for the capital adequacy ratio, the ratio obtained by dividing the basic capital by the total assets weighted by the risk coefficients in percentage terms is used. Also, multivariable regression model and panel data method were used to test the research hypothesis. The results showed that the ratio of capital adequacy has a negative and significant effect on banking efficiency.

   Risk information play an important role in making the right decision and evaluation of the company. The purpose this study is to investigate the impact of Business Strategy on Risk Disclosure.This research is a descriptive- correlation research and can be considered as an applied one.The statiscal population of the study includes companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2020. sampling is based on systematic removal method and 69 ompanies have been selected as sample size. Multivariable regression and panel data are used for analyzing the variables. risk disclosure data was collected by content analysis of annual reports of companies. Results show a firm’s business strategy is a determinant of the amount of risk factor information in the annual report. The results showed that there is significant and positive relationship between prospector strategy and risk disclosure. Firms with an innovation-oriented prospector strategy report more about their risk factors than firms with an efficiency-oriented defender strategy. Also there is a significant and negative relationship between defender strategy and risk disclosure. Therefore, it can be said that defender companies disclose less risk in their annual report. Among the control variables of the research, firm size and systematic risk have an effect on the amount of risk information disclosed in annual reports.The results of research hypotheses are consistent with the research of (Weber and Musig,2022) which showed that there is a significant and positive relationship between prospector strategy and risk disclosure, and a significant and negative relationship between defender strategy and risk disclosure.

   Poverty is one of the most important economic variables that affects all economic and social issues of the society and is the main factor for growth and development in the economy. This study uses the statistical evidence of Iran's provinces over 2009-2019 to estimate the poverty rate using the Fixed Angle Inverse approach and then examines the relationship between labor productivity and poverty. The results of the estimates show that the poverty ratio has increased from 15.6% in 2009 to 23.4% in 2019. At the provincial level, the percentage of people below the poverty line in Sistan and Baluchistan province is the highest at 49% and in Tehran province at the lowest at 6.4%. Labor productivity in 2009 based on gross domestic product at the base price of 2011 was equal to 0.24 billion rials per employed person, and it changed to 0.336 in 2019 in a fluctuating trend. The estimation results show that there is bidirectional causality from poverty to productivity. Also, poverty has a negative and significant effect on labor productivity. But at the provincial level, it has been confirmed only in the provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, West Azerbaijan, Kermanshah, Khuzestan, Fars, Razavi Khorasan, Isfahan, Hamedan, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Lorestan, Zanjan, North Khorasan and Alborz. However, there is some kind of causality from labor productivity to poverty at the country level for all provinces, but the negative effect of productivity on poverty has been confirmed only in the three provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran and Yazd. Therefore, improving the quality of education and health in order to increase the ability of the workforce and increase productivity, increasing the share of activities with high added value, focusing on creating economic stability and reducing the efficiency of markets without added value in order to develop activities with high added value are the most important policies proposed to reduce poverty and increasing productivity in Iran's economy.

   Abstract Despite the emergence of electronic banking technologies in the country's banking system and the benefits of its usage, the acceptance of this type of technology by customers has suffered from some kind of backwardness and has not grown as expected. In this regard, this study seeks to identify the factors that determine the motivation for accepting Internet banking. The data of this dissertation is related to the status of customers' use and motivation of Internet banking services. The collected information was done by distributing a questionnaire from 1397 to 1400 in Kermanshah. Also, the statistical population is customers between 20-49 years of banks in the city of Kermanshah. The method of sampling was simple random in banks and was a questionnaire. According to the research findings, the social characteristics of websites, online services, and average internet-device access positively affect trust. These factors make up 32% of the variance of Internet banking trust. The social characteristics of websites, compatibility with lifestyle, online services, average internet/device access, and trust, positively affect the ease of use and account for 48% of the variance of ease of using internet banking. The social characteristics of websites, online services, and average Internet/device access positively affect lifestyle adaptation, accounting for 58% of the variance of Internet banking lifestyle adaptation. The social characteristics of websites and online services positively affect the average Internet access/device, and these factors constitute 35% of the average Internet access / Internet banking device.

   Justice and fair distribution of income have always been the concerns of policymakers in every country; Therefore, the study and analysis of the factors affecting it is of particular importance. The stock market and its impact on income inequality are among the most important of these factors; Therefore, in this study, the effect of the stock market on the Gini coefficient as an index of income inequality during the periods of 2019-1993 in a selection of developing countries and using quantitative panel regression is investigated. The results of model estimation show that with increasing investment in the stock market, the market turnover ratio increases and also the value of transactions increases. Due to the positive effect of the two on the Gini coefficient, inequality increases at first, but because the stock market is large. It becomes more and more pervasive, as a result of which the market value of the stock market increases relative to GDP, which has a positive relationship with the Gini coefficient, and different strata and more income groups turn to investing in the stock market. The results of this study indicate that first the income distribution inequality is increased and then over time this inequality decreases with the increase of people's income from investing in the stock market.

The history of human civilization has been plagued by a series of crises caused by epidemics, wars and catastrophes, each of which has had a significant contribution to the change in the activities of human societies. The present study was written with the aim of analyzing the model of consumer behavior in crisis situations and providing an appropriate marketing solution (Case study: Corona virus crisis on small and medium enterprises), It has been written. For this purpose, five main steps were prepared to achieve the objectives of this study. In the first step, the effects and consequences of the outbreak of COVID-19 on consumer behavior in Iranian society were studied and identified, which resulted in the presentation of a four-part model at the beginning of the fifth chapter. In the third step of the research, which is a kind of entry into the quantitative phase and field study of the research, the collected data from the qualitative part were measured and tested to check their accuracy. Then, in the fourth step of the research, a model for predicting consumer behavior in crisis situations was prepared and adjusted. Finally, in the fifth step, in addition to presenting the research process model, solutions to get out of the current problem were suggested to businesses. The research methodology was a combination of two quantitative and qualitative approaches (mixed approach) and using nest logic; For this purpose, in the qualitative section, using the qualitative research interview method and systematic analysis of Strauss and Corbin, data were collected and collected. How to collect data in the qualitative part using judgmental sampling and snowball and based on a sample of 20 people consisting of experts and experts aware of the subject was done. Interviews (semi-structured) were then conducted to achieve theoretical saturation, and data analysis was performed through qualitative or interpretive content analysis. Then, in the quantitative part, the quantitative part was made by using a survey method and preparing a researcher-made questionnaire, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed. The accuracy of the data was measured in the qualitative part. The statistical population of Kermanshah province and the sample size selected in the quantitative section were selected by Morgan et al. Table above 384. Quantitative data analysis was performed using    software. The findings of the qualitative sector indicate profound changes in consumer behavior, which were >  

سرمايه يك عامل كليدي در رشد وتوسعه اقتصادي محسوب مي شود اما امروزه فرار سرمايه يكي از مشكلات اساسي كشورهاي در حال توسعه است. فرار سرمايه مي تواند ناشي از عوامل مختلفي مانند اقتصادي،سياسي و اجتماعي باشد در پژوهش حاضر به بررسي عوامل اقتصادي تاثير گذار بر فرار سرمايه با استفاده از داده هاي سالانه طي بازه 1358تا1395 پرداخته مي شود در سال هاي مورد بررسي سال 1390 داراي بيشترين ميزان فرار سرمايه از كشور است در اين پژوهش به بررسي عوامل اقتصادي نظير نرخ ارز، تورم، رشد اقتصادي، ماليات، ريسك مركب و كسري بودجه بر ميزان فرار سرمايه پرداخته مي شود. مدل اين پژوهش با استفاده از روش  GMM , ARDL برآورد مي شود. نتايج اين پژوهش طبق روش GMM نشان مي دهد كه رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه، تورم و نرخ ارز تاثيري مثبت، ريسك مركب تاثيري منفي ، نرخ بهره و ماليات فاقد اثر معنا داري بر فرار سرمايه است. طبق روش ARDL در بلندمدت اثر متغيرهاي رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه دولت، ريسك مركب، تورم و نرخ ارز همانند روش GMM است . اما اثر ماليات و نرخ بهره بر فرار سرمايه در بلند مدت مشخص نيست. در كوتاه مدت تنها سه عامل رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه و ريسك اقتصادي اثري معناداري بر فرار سرمايه دارند در بين همه عوامل ذكر شده رشد اقتصادي بيشترين تاثير بر فرار سرمايه را دارد.

  Employment in the modern society of Iran plays an important role in the development of the country and the achievement of the desired level of employment has always been one of the main goals of the government. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of banking facilities on the employment level of the major economic sectors in the provinces. The time interval used in this study was from 1380 to 1393, and for analyzing the data, the GMM generalized moments method was used. The results show that during the study period, for the total state of the provinces, the effect of the bank lending variable on the employment of agricultural sectors and services is negative, but in the industrial sector this effect is positive. The effect of the value added variable on employment in the agricultural sector is negative, but it is positive in the sectors of industry and services. Also, the results for the division show that the effect of the variable of banking facilities on employment in both groups is high and low unemployment in the agricultural sector is negative and equal. This effect in the industry sector is positive for both groups, but this effect is higher in the group with higher unemployment than in the lower unemployment group. In the services sector, the results also showed that the effect of the bank lending variables on employment in the group was higher with the unemployment rate and was lower in the unemployed group

  Employment and economic growth are among the key macroeconomic variables in which policymakers consider their changes in order to achieve stability and economic development. Undoubtedly, the relationship between these two variables and how they affect them has a great influence on planning, policy making and coherent and efficient policies. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and employment is of great importance.   The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of economic growth on employment of the major economic sectors of the countrys provinces. The timeframe used in this thesis is from 1380 to 1393. Generalized Torque (GMM) method was used for data analysis. The results of model estimation indicate that during the studied period, the effect of economic growth on the long-term effects of economic growth on employment of all three major economic sectors of the countrys provinces (agriculture, industry, services) has been positive. That is, increasing the value added will lead to increased employment of the major economic sectors of the countrys provinces. The investment variable in two parts of the agricultural and industrial sectors of the provinces has a positive effect and in the service sector there is a negative impact on employment. Also, the wage variable in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors has a negative effect on the service sector and has a positive effect on employment in the provinces. The results of the division of the provinces showed that the increase of the value added of the industrial sector in all three groups of provinces increased the employment of this sector than the other two.

  Tourism is as a multi-disciplinary, multi-issue, multi-sector and multi-form activity. The tourist is only main sector of services in developing countries is constantly compared to the rest of the world has recorded a trade surplus. According to the World Tourism Organization, about half of the least developed countries in world, the tourism sector in terms of rank is the highest exports in between three section. On the other hand, business cycle fluctuations are an integral part of any economy. And study these fluctuations and their effects on the tourism industry as one of the important economic sectors is necessary. This study aimed to "investigate the relationship between trade fluctuations with tourism demand", for the four selected countries of Iran, Turkey, Malaysia and Egypt has been done which have high capability in the field of tourism. The studied period this research was from 1980 to 2014. Variables are logarithmic and are studied to panel data and after examining stationary variables and prove the existence of co-integration relationship between variables, using FMOLS and DOLS panel cointegration tests, long-term relationship between variables was estimated. The results of these tests indicates the negative effect of recession and positive effect of economic boom with tourism demand logarithm. Also by using panel causality test (VECM) studies causality relationship between business cycles and tourism demand. That its results have proved existence long-term bilateral causality relationship between business cycles and tourism demand.

It is obvious that interest rate challenge as an important economic phenomenon has divided economists into different cam   and also answer to question that, what are interest rate nature and its formation and determination, has known as an important subject. In one view , interest rate is a monetary phenomenon that could be determine by money demand and supply, and in other view, it is a real phenomenon that could be determine by average prefer to saving and capital marginal productivity. Interest rate has retribution rule in economic growth promotion and there is an abundant struggle to regulate it into desirable level as a suitable policy in last decades.I  hy  hy; this research,to examine the relationship betwee  the interest rate and  macro  variable  ,  the impact of  these variable  o  economic growth to  a selection of  high - income  countrie  and low - income  hasexpressed  . For this purpose, we use SYS-GMM method during 2000-2014 periods.   The results shows that in low-income countries, there is a significant and positive relationship between real interest rate, inflation and investment with economic growth, and also openness, saving and economic participation rate has negative effects on economic growth. The results for high-income countries shows that inflation, investment, saving and economic participation rates has positive relationship with economic growth but real interest rate and economic openness has negative effect on economic growth.     

  AbstractIn general, among different factors affecting economic growth, bank credit is of great significance. also, In Iran, due to existing shortcomings of financial market, bank resources is one of the crucial financial resources that is available for firms; since Economic growth requires resource and capital; the resource may be provided for different economic sectors, either by banks or financial institutions, in terms of facilities. Banks with giving facilities provide resources from surplus units to units that they   are need to financial resources for doing economic affairs and it causes to make easy economic activities, increase investment, production and employment. Therefore, banks performance in lending has a significant impact on production and economic growth and vibrations in access to credits, cause to appear disorder in society. Thus, it is necessary the optimal allocation of resources between the various economic sections and reaching this important something need to know affective factors on granted credits by banks. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting credits granted by banks to the private sector in Iran during 1982-2015. To do so, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) is used. In this study, the effects of total domestic deposits, foreign liabilities of banking system, real lending interest rates, reserve requirements rate, ratio of broad money to GDP, real GDP, and inflation rate on credits granted by banks to the private sector is reviewed. The findings suggest that variables such as domestic deposits and real GDP positively affect the credits granted by banks to the private sector while legal reserve rate and foreign liabilities of banking system negatively affect the credits granted by banks to the private sector. Also, variables such as real lending interest rates, ratio of broad money to GDP and inflation rate have no effect on the credits granted by banks to the private sector.Keywords: bank credit, Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL), Iran.