Kiomars Sohaili

   Income inequality is one of the chronic challenges of Iran's economy. The Gini coefficient has fluctuated between 0.38 and 0.40 in recent years, and the >The theoretical framework of this research is based on the theories of financial development benefiting the poor, empowering the poor through access to financial services, and the inverted U-shaped hypothesis of Greenwood and Jovanovic. The research method is descriptive-analytical, utilizing annual time series data. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been employed to estimate the model. The dependent variable is the Gini coefficient, while the independent variables include financial development (the ratio of liquidity to GDP) and financial inclusion (the ratio of bank accounts to the adult population). Control variables consist of inflation rate, unemployment rate, economic growth, and trade openness. The findings indicate that both financial development and financial inclusion have a negative and significant effect on income inequality in both the short run and the long run. The magnitude of the effect of financial inclusion is greater than that of financial development, highlighting the importance of the qualitative dimension of financial development in reducing inequality. Inflation and unemployment have a positive effect, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect on income inequality. The error correction term coefficient indicates a relatively high speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The results confirm all three research hypotheses and demonstrate that financial development and financial inclusion can serve as effective tools in reducing income inequality in Iran. Accordingly, it is recommended that policymakers take effective steps toward reducing the class gap and achieving social justice by strengthening financial inclusion, directing financial development towards productive sectors, controlling inflation and unemployment, and improving the business environment.

As one of the most oil-dependent economies, Iraq has long faced chronic budget deficits and structural inflation. This study aims to investigate the effect of the budget deficit on inflation in Iraq over the period 2004–2024, using the ARDL model. The variables include inflation, budget deficit, liquidity, exchange rate, GDP, and oil revenues.   

  Energy poverty, as the inability of households to meet their basic energy needs, including heating, cooling, lighting, and cooking at an affordable price, is considered one of the fundamental challenges of developing countries, which can be exacerbated by factors such as international sanctions. The present study aimed to investigate the impact of international sanctions on energy poverty in Iran, using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) method and annual time series data from 1360 to 1402. The findings of the study show that in the long run, the intensification of international sanctions, the increase in urbanization rates, the increase in the free market exchange rate, and the increase in inflation rates have a positive and significant effect on increasing energy poverty; while the increase in production

  In recent decades, the increased volatility of energy prices has emerged as a critical issue for the global economy and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Fluctuations in energy prices can significantly impact various economic sectors, including food production and distribution. This study aims to examine the effect of energy price volatility on food prices in selected Arab countries—specifically Iraq, Syria, and Egypt. Data for the study will be gathered from the World Bank and other reliable statistical sources, covering the period from 2012 to 2025. The research methodology relies on time-series analysis and panel data econometric models. Panel cointegration tests and VAR/SVAR models will be employed to analyze the short- and long-term relationships between energy prices and food prices.

  This research was carried out with the aim of analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables (inflation rate, growth rate and unemployment rate) and the targeting policy of subsidies on the indicators of poverty rate and Gini coefficient in the Iranian economy during the seasonal period of 2009 to 2002. The theoretical framework of the research is a synthesis of the basics of Easterly and Fisher (2001) regarding the triple relationship of inflation, growth and poverty, Ravalion (2004) on the basics of measuring poverty and evaluating poverty alleviation policies, and Kakwani (1993) on measuring inequality and analyzing income redistribution policies. Considering the dynamic nature of relationships and the possible existence of a combination of I(0) and I(1) stationarity degrees in the variables, the self-explanatory method with wide intervals (ARDL) was used to estimate long-term and short-term relationships and the vector error correction model (ECM) was used to analyze the speed of adjustment. The data used is seasonal time series, which allows more accurate tracking of intra-year dynamics and increasing the degree of freedom of the model. The findings from the estimation of ARDL models showed that in the long term, the targeting index of subsidies has a significant and reducing effect on both dependent variables. The economic growth rate has a double effect, and while significantly reducing the poverty rate, it has led to an increase in the Gini coefficient. The unemployment rate was identified as the strongest factor increasing poverty and inequality at the same time. In contrast, the inflation rate had no statistically significant net effect on these two indicators. Examining short-term relationships also revealed dynamic and sometimes contradictory patterns. The estimation of the ECM model for both dependent variables confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship and the negative and significant error correction coefficient showed the slow speed of adjustment of shocks. As a result, this study, while confirming part of the theoretical foundations, revealed the distinct role of each of the macro and political variables in influencing poverty and inequality in Iran, and emphasized the necessity of a combined and multidimensional policy including macro stabilization along with job creation, continuity and promotion of the targeting of subsidies, and moving towards a model of inclusive growth to simultaneously achieve poverty reduction and inequality adjustment.

  toram mazman dar egtesad iran, yeki az chaleshesaye bonyadin est keh risheh dar avamel sakhtari, nosanat arzi, tahrimehaye egtesadi ve bacpehvizheh entezarat tormi ayandehangar dard. in pajoosh ba cpehdaf barresi chegongi sheklegiri entezarat tormi ve naqsh enteghal asar narkh arz dar egtesad iran, ti doreh fasli 1?3?8?0? ta 1?4?0?4? (1?0?0? moshadeh) enjam shodeh est.

Abstract This study investigates the impact of fluctuations in the national currency’s value on the level of happiness in Iran. Persistent depreciation of the national currency in recent years—through channels such as rising inflation, declining purchasing power, increasing income inequality, and weakening economic security—has the potential to significantly influence individuals’ subjective well?being and life satisfaction. At the same time, currency devaluation may generate limited positive effects through improved export competitiveness and potential gains in employment.   Using reliable national and international datasets on currency value, key macroeconomic indicators, and happiness measures, this research analyzes the relationship between these variables within a regression?based empirical framework. The findings indicate that currency depreciation has a statistically significant negative effect on happiness in Iran, primarily transmitted through inflationary pressures and the erosion of households’ purchasing power. Although some positive effects related to increased exports and employment appear in certain periods, these effects are insufficient to offset the broader negative consequences of currency devaluation on subjective well?being. Overall, the results highlight that economic stability, inflation control, and preservation of purchasing power play a vital role in enhancing social well?being and improving life satisfaction. Currency instability, therefore, emerges as a key factor contributing to declines in happiness among the Iranian population.   

   One of the main problems for countries with oil resources is the existence of Dutch disease, during which, with the abundance of oil revenues, on the one hand, it is faced with a decrease in the exchange rate and on the other hand, with a decrease in competitiveness. The combination of these factors causes the economy to be highly vulnerable to external fluctuations. In this regard, the present study uses Iranian economic statistics during the period 1992-2023 and applies the ARDL approach to assess the impact of Dutch disease on the Iranian economy, focusing on the dynamics of the exchange rate and export diversity. The results of the present study show that there is a kind of causality from oil exports to the exchange rate and export diversity, but ARDL estimates show that oil revenues have improved the value of the national currency in the short term, but in the long term this effect is not statistically significant. Also, oil revenues have reduced export diversity in both the short and long term and have significantly increased the possibility of the emergence of Dutch disease. Therefore, the existence of Dutch disease in the Iranian economy has been confirmed, but given the decrease in foreign income, n recent years, this phenomenon has become less. Industrialization in the economy has significantly reduced the impact of the emergence of Dutch disease, and this is due to the nature of the development of the industrial sector in the growth of technology and innovation, ultimately foreign investment in the Iranian economy has not had a significant effect on export diversification. Therefore, improving diplomacy to remove economic sanctions and using the capacity of foreign direct investment to strengthen export diversification and using oil revenues to improve infrastructure to encourage the entry of the private sector are the most important policies to avoid Dutch disease.

   Purpose: This study aimed to examine the impact of internal auditors’ individual and professional attributes on the quality of independent auditing within the Iraqi banking sector. Given the increasing importance of tra  arency and accountability in emerging financial systems, the research focused on identifying key competency dimensions of internal auditors—including specialized education, work experience, professional expertise, independence, professional ethics, and communication skills—and assessing how each of these dimensions contributes to enhancing independent audit quality. This approach provides valuable insights into leveraging human capital to strengthen oversight and public trust in the banking system.

With the development of new technologies, especially artificial intelligence, the insurance industry, as one of the main pillars of the country's financial system, is on the path of digital transformation. The present study was conducted with the aim of providing a model for improving the attitude towards the acceptance of artificial intelligence in the insurance industry. This study was applied in terms of purpose and was conducted with a qualitative approach and grounded theory research method. The study population included all experts, such as faculty members with relevant resumes and expertise, managers, specialists, and active and expert experts in Kowsar insurance agencies across the country. In terms of data collection method, it was a documentary-field research. Participants were selected using purposive and theoretical sampling methods, and to determine the sample size, sampling continued until theoretical saturation. The data collection tools in this study included reviewing existing documents and evidence, semi-structured interviews, group discussions, and field note-taking. To determine the validity and reliability of the research, triangulation techniques were used, as well as review by key participants and other colleagues of the research team. A three-stage coding technique was used to analyze the data. The results also presented a paradigmatic model consisting of the dimensions of causal conditions (including economic factors, cultural and social factors, etc.), contextual conditions (including managerial and organizational factors, infrastructure), intervening conditions (including legal-supportive factors, educational and research factors), measures (including organizational, educational-research, institutional and governmental factors, etc.), and consequences (including social, technological and innovative factors, etc.). This research states that the adoption of artificial intelligence in the Iranian insurance industry is not only a technological choice, but also a strategic organizational-cultural transformation, the success of which depends on a systemic and comprehensive approach to all influential factors.   

 Iran’s economy is among those in which energy consumption is heavily subsidized; as a result, domestic energy prices are low compared to neighboring countries. This has led to inefficient energy use, and international statistics classify Iran as a high energy?intensity economy. At the provincial level, there is also a considerable gap in energy intensity that cannot be fully explained by standard determinants such as industrialization, urbanization, GDP, and financial development; part of this gap is due to unexplained factors that conventional models cannot capture.Using provincial data for 2007–2020 and a decomposition?model approach, this study estimates the contribution of industrialization, GDP, urbanization, population, and financial development to energy intensity. The GMM estimation results show that industrialization, economic growth, and financial development have a negative and significant effect on energy intensity, whereas population and urbanization exert a positive and significant effect. Finally, the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition indicates that about 93% of the gap in energy intensity and 70% of total energy consumption can be explained by these factors, while the contribution of smuggling and improper consumption patterns is about 7% of the intensity gap and 30% of energy use. Accordingly, designing appropriate economic structures that reinforce the negative impact of the above factors on energy intensity is a key policy priority for Iran’s economy.

 Abstract: The increasing trend of income inequality, along with high inflation, unemployment, and social injustice in the Middle East, has made this region one of the most unequal regions in the world. These acute socio-economic conditions have made it more than ever clear that policymakers need to pay serious attention to the issue of reducing inequality and more equitable income distribution. In the meantime, corruption is recognized as one of the most important structural factors exacerbating inequality in the countries of this region. This study examines in-depth the mechanisms of the impact of corruption on income inequality in the Middle East. In this regard, to examine the relationship between corruption and other control variables such as the global governance index, gross domestic product, trade openness, and unemployment rate with income inequality, panel data econometric techniques are used with annual data over the period 2012-2022 for 12 Middle East countries based on the World Bank classification.

  The unemployment rate, as one of the macroeconomic indicators, has had a wide impact on various aspects of the social and economic life of societies. The happiness and psychological well-being of citizens are also among the variables that are affected by the increase in the unemployment rate. Scientific study and quantitative estimation of the impact of the increase in the unemployment rate on happiness are of particular importance, which are addressed in this research. In the research model, the happiness index is considered as the dependent variable and the unemployment rate as the independent variable. In addition, variables such as inflation, per capita income, economic growth rate, trade openness and exchange rate are also considered as control variables. The research method is descriptive-analytical and has an econometric approach. The quantile regression technique is used to examine the effect of independent and control variables on happiness. The data used will be collected from reputable national and international sources for the period 2005 to 2023.

   The present study aims to identify and analyze the challenges of creating sustainable employment for individuals with disabilities in workshop units supported by the Welfare Organization of Kermanshah Province. Sustainable employment, a key component in human and social development and crucial for enhancing the dignity and social participation of people with disabilities, continues to face issues such as unemployment and discrimination despite existing protective legislation. This qualitative study employed a qualitative content analysis approach, conducting 20 semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of employment for people with disabilities (using purposive snowball sampling) to analyze the data. Findings indicate that the challenges to sustainable employment for individuals with disabilities are multidimensional and intersectoral, >   Keywords: Sustainable employment of persons with disabilities, welfare, social entrepreneurship, social support, sheltered workshops, empowerment of persons with disabilities

   Abstract:   Unemployment is one of the most significant socio-economic challenges facing developing economies, including Iran. A well-functioning labor market is essential for economic stability, social cohesion, and sustainable growth. Monetary policy and financial development are two crucial levers that policymakers can use to combat unemployment. These tools have been extensively studied in both developed and developing countries; however, their specific impacts in economies like Iran, with unique institutional and structural characteristics, require deeper exploration. Therefore, this study employs time series data from 2001 to 2022 to analyze how monetary policy instruments—including the money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate—along with a composite of three financial development indicators (Financial Development Efficiency Index, Financial Depth Index, and Structural Financial Development Index), affect the unemployment rate. Short-term dynamics will be assessed using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, while long-term relationships will be examined through a Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM). The findings indicate that, in the short term, no clear causal relationship between monetary policy and unemployment is observed, and even unconventional reactions are present. However, in the long term, a significant equilibrium relationship stabilizes, whereby both expansionary monetary policy and financial development have a reducing effect on the unemployment rate. Financial development shows a weak impact in the short term but becomes the strongest factor reducing unemployment in the medium term, and its reducing effect persists into the long termveu, albeit with less intensity. Conversely, the interest rate has an unexpected negative effect on unemployment in the short term and a positive effect in the long term. Furthermore, currency depreciation reduces unemployment in the short term by boosting exports, but in the long term, as inflationary effects dominate, this relationship reverses. In conclusion, the results emphasize the necessity of adopting a long-term perspective in policymaking and aligning monetary policy with structural reforms in the labor market and financial system to achieve sustainable employment.    Key Words: Unemployment, Monetary Policies, Financial Development, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM), Iran.

Today, limited energy resources and increasing world population have faced countries with an energy consumption crisis. Considering the contemporary and rapidly changing society, renewable energies are emerging as a key element in advancing environmental resilience and energy independence. The limited resources of non-renewable (fossil) energies and the increase in environmental pollution caused by excessive consumption of fossil fuels are considered problems in energy consumption. These factors increase the importance of renewable energy consumption. The issue of environmental pollution and economic issues has led to the emergence of an approach called green economy. This goal will not be achieved unless the causes and obstacles to achieving it are analyzed. Although there are numerous studies on the effects of renewable energies, few studies have been conducted on the impact of renewable energy consumption on green growth and life expectancy. With the aim of filling this research gap, the effect of renewable energy consumption on green growth and life expectancy in RECAI countries will be examined using a wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile regression model.

   Abstract: In this study we have been trying to examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on carbon dioxide emission and ecological footprint in chosen developing and developed countries with quantile on quantile regression analysis, we used panel data of ten developed and developing countries in twenty seven years. In this study we create for models:   model 1: examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on carbon dioxide emission in five developing countries.   model2: examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on ecological footprint in five developing countries. Model3: examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on carbon dioxide emission in five developed countries. Model4:   examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on ecological footprint in five developed countries. The result showed that in model1 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on carbon emission although in few quantiles positive impact and no impact was indicated. The result showed that in model1 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on carbon emission. The result showed that in model1 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of economic growth on carbon emission. The result showed that in model2 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on ecological footprint is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in mode2 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on carbon emission although in few quantiles negative impact was indicated.   The result showed that in model2 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of economic growth on ecological footprint is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in model3 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on carbon emission is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half.    The result showed that in model3 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on carbon emission although in few quantiles no impact was indicated. The result showed that in model3 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of economic growth on carbon emission is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in model4 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on ecological foot print is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in model4 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on ecological foot print although in few quantiles negative impact and no impact was indicated. The result showed that in model4 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of economic growth on ecological foot print.

   Income inequality is one of the main challenges facing middle-income countries on the path to sustainable development and inclusive growth. In this regard, financial inclusion and the development of the financial system can play an important role in reducing inequality. This study aims to investigate the role of financial inclusion, through the channel of financial development, on income inequality in a comparative study of Iran and a panel of selected middle-income countries from 2005 to 2023. The central research question is whether and how a country's level of financial development affects the effectiveness of financial inclusion in reducing income inequality. To test the research hypotheses, a panel data model using the Fixed Effects method was employed, incorporating an interaction term to measure the channel role of financial development. Income inequality is measured by the Gini coefficient, while financial inclusion and financial development are measured using standard international indicators. The key findings of the research indicate that financial inclusion, by itself, has a strong, negative, and statistically significant effect on income inequality. Financial development is also independently associated with a reduction in inequality. However, the study's most significant finding, derived from the analysis of the interaction term, reveals a more complex and non-linear relationship. The positive and significant coefficient of the interaction term implies that as the level of financial development increases, the inequality-reducing power of financial inclusion diminishes. In other words, the effectiveness of financial inclusion in mitigating inequality is considerably greater in countries with lower levels of financial development. This finding carries important policy implications: policymakers should adopt a conditional, two-stage approach. In the early stages of development, focusing on expanding access to basic financial services can be a highly effective tool for reducing inequality. In later stages, however, the policy focus must shift towards structural reforms that ensure the "inclusiveness" and "efficiency" of the entire financial system, allowing its benefits to be broadly distributed and contributing to a sustainable reduction in inequality.

Fair distribution of income is one of the obvious examples of social justice, and nowadays it is one of the main concerns of all countries, both developed and developing. Many researchers believe that the main reason for poverty in today's world is not the lack of income, but the unfair and unequal distribution of income. Dealing with income   inequality, which will eventually turn into economic and social inequality, is very important, and this will not be achieved unless the causes and factors affecting income   inequality are identified, evaluated and analyzed. In this regard, in this study, an attempt is made to investigate the effect of the cryptocurrency market on the income inequality of selected developing and developed countries using the panel data method during the period of 2019-2023.  

  In recent years, earnings quality has attracted considerable attention in accounting and finance research as a key indicator for evaluating the tra  arency and reliability of financial information. This study aims to examine the impact of CEO overconfidence on the relationship between managerial ability and earnings quality in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2017–2023. The statistical population includes all listed companies during this period, and based on screening criteria, a sample of 141 companies was selected. The research is quantitative and descriptive-analytical, with data collected from secondary sources, including audited financial statements, explanatory notes, board reports, and the CODAL system. The study variables were extracted and calculated, and multiple regression analysis in EViews 12 was used to evaluate the relationships among them. The findings indicate that managerial ability has a significant positive relationship with earnings quality, and CEO overconfidence plays a meaningful moderating role in this relationship, reducing the effect of managerial ability on earnings quality. The results emphasize that attention to managerial behavioral traits and the enhancement of managerial ability are essential for improving the tra  arency and reliability of corporate financial reporting.

The present study aims to present a model for the adoption of artificial intelligence in human resource management with an emphasis on improving organizational technological entrepreneurship (case study: Kermanshah Provincial Health Insurance Organization) in Kermanshah Province. This study is applied in terms of purpose and is a qualitative research using the grounded theory method. The statistical population of this study was all experts in various relevant communities, such as experts in the field of human resource management, faculty members with relevant resumes and backgrounds, and other experts in this field. 18 people were surveyed in semi-structured in-depth individual interviews using a non-probability purposeful sampling method using the snowball method until saturation was reached. Data analysis was performed using the content analysis method. Based on the results of the study, causal, contextual, intervening factors, main phenomena, strategies, and consequences were identified through three stages of open, axial, and selective coding using MAXQDA 2022 software. The findings showed that the obtained categories were categorized into 26 categories in 6 main categories, which included the following causal factors: competitive advantages in adopting artificial intelligence, managerial and organizational capabilities, technical and technological infrastructure, challenges and barriers to adoption, and factors facilitating adoption. Contextual factors included organizational characteristics, technological characteristics, external environment and market, human and behavioral characteristics. Also, intervening factors included training and skills development, management and leadership support, organizational culture and technology adoption, data and infrastructure quality, communication and information. Strategies included training and development of human resources, management and leadership support, improving infrastructure and data, increasing employee participation, developing evaluation and motivation models, creating a culture of innovation and learning, strengthening internal and external communications, and the consequences were improving human resource performance, strengthening technological entrepreneurship, increasing technology adoption and culture, improving organizational efficiency, and better strategic decision-making. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that for success in adopting new technologies, it is of great importance to develop managerial and organizational capabilities through holding special training courses for managers and clarifying the goals of artificial intelligence for all levels of management.   

This research aims to examine the impact of adherence to professional regulations, ethics internal locus of control, and emotional intelligence on the ability to detect fraud, considering the mediating role of norms leading to reduced audit quality in the public sector. From the perspective of its objective, this research is applied, and in terms of its nature and method, it is descriptive-survey. For data collection, the questionnaire developed by Yulianti et al. (2023) was used. The statistical population of this study includes auditors employed at the Supreme Audit Court of Iran, responsible for auditing the public sector. To better cover the population, the questionnaire was distributed (both in-person and online) across the provinces of Tehran, Markazi, Kermanshah, and Fars. Following the distribution and applying simple random sampling, a total of 308 valid responses were collected and analyzed. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used for data analysis. The results revealed that adherence to professional regulations, ethics, internal locus of control, and emotional intelligence have a positive and significant effect on reducing norms that lead to diminished audit quality in the public sector. It was also found that these variables directly enhance the ability to detect fraud, with the mediating role of norms reducing audit quality being significant. Furthermore, the significant impact of such norms on the ability to detect fraud was confirmed, highlighting the crucial importance of auditors' professional conduct. Strengthening the driving forces among auditors working at the Supreme Audit Court can lead to a reduction in behaviors that lower audit quality in the public sector and, conversely, improve the ability to detect fraud. Accordingly, it is recommended that policymakers and managers at the Supreme Audit Court focus on promoting professional adherence, providing ethical training, enhancing internal locus of control, and fostering emotional intelligence among auditors to improve audit quality and fraud detection in the public sector.

   This study investigates the bidirectional relationship between liquidity and the exchange rate in the Iranian economy over the period 1981–2021. Using the quantile regression method in EViews 12, the research aims to explore the mutual effects of these two key macroeconomic variables across different points of their distribution. Two separate models were estimated: the first examines the impact of liquidity growth on the exchange rate, while the second analyzes the effect of the exchange rate on liquidity growth. The results of the first model reveal that liquidity growth has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate in the lower quantiles (0.125 to 0.375), indicating a higher sensitivity of the exchange rate to liquidity when the exchange rate level is relatively low. The second model shows that the exchange rate also has a positive and significant effect on liquidity in the lower quantiles of the liquidity distribution, confirming the existence of a bidirectional relationship between the two variables. Additionally, the significant effect of GDP on liquidity across all quantiles underscores the importance of real economic variables in monetary developments. However, variables such as trade openness and the government budget deficit did not show significant impacts on liquidity. Moreover, the variable representing the intensity of economic sanctions had a significant effect on the exchange rate only in a specific quantile and failed to demonstrate a consistent structural moderating role in the liquidity–exchange rate relationship. Ultimately, the findings point to the existence of a feedback loop between the monetary and foreign exchange markets in Iran, which, under conditions of inflation and currency instability, can pose serious challenges for economic policymaking. These results highlight the necessity of greater coordination between monetary and exchange rate policies to control fluctuations and enhance macroeconomic stability. This study investigates the bidirectional relationship between liquidity and the exchange rate in the Iranian economy over the period 1981–2021. Using the quantile regression method in EViews 12, the research aims to explore the mutual effects of these two key macroeconomic variables across different points of their distribution. Two separate models were estimated: the first examines the impact of liquidity growth on the exchange rate, while the second analyzes the effect of the exchange rate on liquidity growth. The results of the first model reveal that liquidity growth has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate in the lower quantiles (0.125 to 0.375), indicating a higher sensitivity of the exchange rate to liquidity when the exchange rate level is relatively low. The second model shows that the exchange rate also has a positive and significant effect on liquidity in the lower quantiles of the liquidity distribution, confirming the existence of a bidirectional relationship between the two variables. Additionally, the significant effect of GDP on liquidity across all quantiles underscores the importance of real economic variables in monetary developments. However, variables such as trade openness and the government budget deficit did not show significant impacts on liquidity. Moreover, the variable representing the intensity of economic sanctions had a significant effect on the exchange rate only in a specific quantile and failed to demonstrate a consistent structural moderating role in the liquidity–exchange rate relationship. Ultimately, the findings point to the existence of a feedback loop between the monetary and foreign exchange markets in Iran, which, under conditions of inflation and currency instability, can pose serious challenges for economic policymaking. These results highlight the necessity of greater coordination between monetary and exchange rate policies to control fluctuations and enhance macroeconomic stability.

Monetary and banking crises are one of the economic problems that have affected many countries, including Iran, today. Banking crises cause many economic problems, and most economists are looking for a solution to contain the crises. Several factors affect banking crises, including: individual bank fragility factors and systemic crisis, international shock factors in banking crises, bank ownership and structure factors, political factors, financial structure and financial development, banking regulations, and macroeconomic and microeconomic variables are among the main reasons for the banking crisis in Iran. And examining the conditions governing Iranian banks and countries that have experienced banking or currency crises have higher inflation rates in the long term. In addition, banking crises coincide with a large increase in the government budget deficit or even with the government debt crisis.Given the importance of the monetary and banking crisis on Iran's economic growth, an accurate and scientific estimate of the effects of these variables on the growth rate of the Iranian economy is of particular importance. And in this thesis, the method of self-explanatory nonlinear approach with wide lags, using data from 1370-1400, has been used in estimating the models. The results obtained from the model estimation indicate that: In the Iranian economy, the relationship between the logarithm of commercial bank debt to the central bank, the logarithm of government debt to the central bank, the logarithm of inflation rate, the logarithm of exchange rate, the logarithm of liquidity volume and the logarithm of interest rate with the logarithm of economic growth is nonlinear (asymmetric). Monetary crises are usually related to imbalances in money supply and demand, increased inflation rates and currency instability.Monetary and banking crises can lead to reduced investment, increased unemployment, and a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP), which in this case affects economic growth. Also, in some cases, crises can lead to structural reforms and improved economic efficiency. Therefore, it can be said that the relationship between monetary and banking crises and economic growth is nonlinear.

  رشد بي سابقه و اهميت جهاني بيت كوين و طلا علاقه به درك

  One of the variables of interest to economic decision-makers is achieving high economic growth. Various factors influence economic growth. One of these factors is the amount of credit provided by commercial banks for the purchase of equipment and working capital to businesses and consumers. Quantifying the impact of bank loans on economic growth is of particular importance. The growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in any economic system depends on the level of investment, with banks playing a major role in providing the necessary financial resources for investment. The efficient and optimal use of bank loans and credit can lead to increased investment, economic boom, job creation, and consequently, economic growth. In addition, budgetary credits, as fiscal policy, play a significant role in economic growth. Therefore, this study investigates the effects of bank loans on economic growth in 28 out of 31 Iranian provinces using panel data and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method with annual data from 2006 to 2020. The results of the hypothesis testing show that bank loans have a positive and significant relationship with economic growth in the country's provinces. Furthermore, the growth rate of capital, technology, and labor force also have a positive and significant relationship with economic growth in the provinces

   One of the main problems of Iran's economy is the high inflation rate. Several factors are effective on the high inflation rate in Iran's economy, and their identification is of particular importance. In this research, the effect of commercial banks' debt and the government's budget deficit on inflation in Iran has been discussed. In this regard, the present study investigates the effect of commercial banks' debt and government budget deficit on the inflation rate in Iran's economy by using Iran's economic statistics during the period of 1385-1401 and applying the vector autoregression error correction method with distributional interval. The results of the estimates have shown that the debt of commercial banks to the central bank has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in the Iranian economy. This indicates the role and share of high-powered money on the high inflation rate of the Iranian economy. The results of the estimates have shown that the debt of commercial banks to the central bank has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in the Iranian economy. This indicates the role and share of high-powered money on the high inflation rate of the Iranian economy. Bank profitability variable also has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Iran. Bank profitability variable also has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Iran. Also, the estimation results show that non-current claims have a negative effect on the inflation rate in Iran. Also, the estimation results show that non-current claims have a negative effect on the inflation rate in Iran.

   In this study, the impact of per capita gross domestic income and environmental degradation on happiness in developed and developing countries during the years 2000 to 2022 has been investigated. Also, the wavelet-based quantile regression method was used for data analysis. On the other hand, in order to more closely examine the effect of the above variables on happiness, the variables of the urban population and the population of people over 65 years of age were added to the model as control variables and the following results were obtained: GDP per capita has a positive effect on the happiness index, on the other hand, the positive effect of income per capita decreases in developed countries that have higher happiness. But in developing countries, the relationship is upward, which means that in countries with a higher level of happiness, income has a greater positive effect on happiness. Also, this positive relationship has been confirmed in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term periods. The emission of carbon dioxide as the most important pollutant of the earth's atmosphere and the loss of tree covers have a negative effect on happiness in both categories of countries. The urban population variable has a positive and significant effect on happiness, this positive effect is due to more amenities in the urban environment. Also, the population of people over 65 has a negative effect on happiness. It means that whatever the amount of this population ratio, if it increases to the total population, the level of happiness in that society will decrease.

  Economic growth is one of the important and

Inflation is one of the economic problems that has affected many countries, including Iran. Inflation causes many social and economic problems, and most economists and politicians are looking for a solution to curb inflation. Several factors affect inflation, including the increase in the price index of imported goods, increase in exchange rate, positive and negative shocks of oil income, uncertainty and volatility, increase in the population of the consumer age group, increase in liquidity, expansionary financial policies and budget deficit. Inflation expectations are one of the main causes of inflation in Iran. As mentioned, one of the variables that affects inflation in Iran is liquidity and monetary base. The country's bank balance sheet has been facing a widening imbalance for many years with the overdraft of the banks from the central bank and the government's budget deficit. Therefore, in this research, quantitative estimation of the effect of banks' mismatches on inflation in Iran has been done. In this research, the statistical data of 1370-1400 were used, and the models used are OLS method and quantile regression. The results of the research in the OLS method show that all variables have a significant effect on inflation and also the quantile regression method shows that with the increase in the growth rate of the banks' debt to the central bank, the growth rate of the government's debt to the central bank and the exchange rate in quantiles. high and low, inflation increases, and the growth rate of the production gap and the openness of the financial market have a negative and significant effect on inflation.   

   Investment is one of the main elements of evaluating the economy of any country. The growth of the capital market in any country is a symbol of the growth of its economic situation. An investment is valuable when both investors and investors benefit from this action. . This requires knowledge of the future status of the companies in the market. When the capital market has continuous profits, investors are also attracted to it, therefore   the criterion of future profit is one of the indicators of valuable investment.The continuation of future profits is also dependent on risk components and growth opportunities as well as cash flow. The coefficient of reaction of future profits can predict the continuation of future profits with the help of current stock returns and solve the concerns of investors.The current research is descriptive in terms of purpose, in terms of practical orientation, in terms of quantitative approach and retrospective in terms of time. In this research, the method of selecting the companies is based on systematic exclusion rule, and a total 120 Tehran stock exchange companies are studied in the period from 2015 to 2022. to test the hypotheses of the research, establishing the classical assumptions of regression has been used. The results obtained from this research show that systematic risk has a significant and direct relationship with the reaction coefficient of future profit. Also, working capital as a mediating factor has a significant effect on the relationship between systematic risk, operating cash flows and growth opportunities.

   The inequality of economic growth is one of the main factors for the heterogeneous distribution of labor and capital and the cause of political and economic crises, because inequality implies the inability of policymakers to benefit from the capacities and potentials of many regions. In this regard, the present study, using the spatial econometric approach and the spatial tile index, examines the effect of financial development on the convergence of economic growth of the province and the analysis of growth inequality for the period of 2007-2020, the results of the study show that 88% of the difference in the economic growth of the provinces It is caused by productivity, which is caused by the financial development and the heterogeneous economic structures of the regions following the application of inputs, in addition to this, the convergence of economic growth with regard to the real and nominal GDP index has been confirmed in all models, and the spillover effects of economic growth The graph is negative, which indicates the limitation of resources and the lack of endogenous economic growth in Iran, finally, financial development plays an important role in the convergence of growth, but their spillover effects have caused the divergence of economic growth in limited cases, so paying attention to the potential of the regions And providing policies in order to benefit from the potential is the most important policy proposal for the present study.

Forecasting the movement of stock market indices is one of the most important topics that is very important for investors, analysts and capital market experts. Due to the fact that the stock market is known as one of the most important financial markets in the world, forecasting stock market indices can be used as an important tool in the decisions of investors and analysts in the capital market. In the meantime, predicting the index of groups can help financial decision makers to make better decisions about the composition of their stock portfolio. There are many algorithms and methods for prediction. These algorithms are usually developed based on time series data analysis. For example, statistical and mathematical methods such as: linear regression, neural networks and machine learning algorithms can be used for prediction. The main goal of this thesis is to compare two artificial neural network models of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive processes of cumulative moving average (ARIMA) to predict the indices of four selected stock market groups (automobiles and parts manufacturing, basic metals, pharmaceutical materials and products, and finished products). petroleum products). The time period of the data used in this thesis is from 01/01/1394 to 10/11/1401 on a daily basis. RMSE and MAPE evaluation criteria were used to compare the prediction accuracy of the models. The results showed that the MLP model has a better performance than the ARIMA model in predicting the two groups of automobiles and the manufacture of petroleum products and parts, and the ARIMA model performed better in the case of the two groups of pharmaceutical materials and products and basic metals.  

   Kuznets hypothesis is confirmed in both groups of countries. In both groups of countries, energy consumption and trade openness lead to a decrease in environmental quality, while good governance leads to an increase in environmental quality. ICT significantly leads to a decrease in environmental quality in developing countries. In developed countries, ICT has no significant impact on environmental quality, while access to the internet significantly improves environmental quality. Therefore, the effects of increasing carbon due to ICT development, such as direct and rebound effects, are greater in developing countries than the effects of reducing carbon due to ICT development, such as substitution effects. Considering the impact of ICT on economic growth and development, the use of renewable energy and energy consumption optimization is recommended in developing countries. Activating substitution effects (reducing outdoor activities using online tools) will also help improve environmental quality @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536870145 1107305727 0 0 415 0;}@font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swi   mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536859905 -1073697537 9 0 511 0;}@font-face {font-family:"B Zar"; panose-1:2 11 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 4; mso-font-alt:Arial; mso-font-charset:178; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:8193 -2147483648 8 0 64 0;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; text-align:justify; text-justify:kashida; text-kashida:0%; text-indent:14.2pt; mso-pagination:none; direction:rtl; unicode-bidi:embed; font-size:11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman",serif; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"B Zar";}.MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:11.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"B Zar"; mso-font-kerning:0pt; mso-ligatures:none;}.MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; text-align:justify; direction:rtl; unicode-bidi:embed;}div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;}

  Inflation is one of the basic problems in Iran's economy. So that during the past years, Iran's economy has experienced high inflation. Therefore, identifying and estimating the factors affecting inflation in Iran can be useful in providing solutions to solve the problem of Iran's economy. One of the factors affecting inflation in Iran is the volume of liquidity and its components, i.e. the increasing coefficient of liquidity and the monetary base. The monetary base has different components based on expenses and sources. Based on expenses, the monetary base includes banknotes and muskox and reserves of commercial banks. According to sources, the monetary base includes net foreign assets of the central bank, net government debt, gross commercial bank debt and net other assets. The effects of spending components and monetary resources components on inflation are not the same. Estimating the impact of each component of monetary base expenses and resources on inflation is of particular importance and can be effective in the country's monetary policies. In this research, it is tried to estimate the effect of components of resources and expenditures on inflation in Iran using time series data for the period of 1370-1400 with self-explanatory econometric method with extended intervals (ARDL). The results indicate that the net foreign assets of the central bank and the net debt of the public sector to the central bank and the gross debt of commercial banks, which are part of the basic monetary resources, have a positive and significant effect on inflation during this period of time, and according to the findings of the research, Banknotes and bills in the flow and reserves of commercial banks with the central bank, which is one of the basic monetary expenses, have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In other words, in both models, the long-term equilibrium relationship between inflation rate variables, net foreign assets of foreign banks, net debt of the public sector to the central bank, gross debt of commercial banks to the central bank, reserves of commercial banks to the central bank and notes and Muskok is accepted in the flow.

The emergence of some important political, economic, social and biological crises has an important role in changing the behavior of human society, especially from the point of view of macro decisions of a country with an economic approach. The preventive and control measures of the corona virus crisis, which require a comprehensive, systematic and multi-dimensional approach, have led to changes in the economic behavior of people in the society, which has caused the country's economic system to face serious challenges.Therefore, the study of the economic situation of the household in the last two years, the effectiveness of the country's decisions regarding the control of the Covid-19 disease and its impact on the economy, the social and economic behavior of the people in the face of such crises in order to prevent challenges and try to create a A healthy economy and its protection are very necessary.In this research, considering the approach of examining the responses of the studied statistical population through the publication of a questionnaire in the virtual space, as well as the use of statistics center data, library documents, related articles, etc., also taking into account the economic situation of the studied population. The study in the last two years uses experimental, content analysis, documentary and descriptive methods. Finally, in the final chapters of the thesis, quantitative data will be analyzed by descriptive statistics and regression methods.The main goal of this research is to investigate the impact of the spread of the Covid-19 disease on the food security, livelihood and economy of the studied households in Kermanshah province based on the results of an internet survey in a short period of time.   

  Organizational capital is a codified, integrated and

   One of the goals of the green economy is to reduce the negative environmental effects caused by the use of natural resources in developing economies. This concept is related to the reduction of energy consumption, and more precisely, to the proper use of energy resources. For this reason, it seems that the changes in the use of fossil fuels in the last 25 years can be analyzed in countries with different levels of development. Examining the separation of economic growth from fossil fuels is a key task that few studies have addressed. This issue is also related to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, especially clean energy, as fossil fuels are still the main source of energy worldwide. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of economic freedom on the process of separating economic growth from fossil fuels. In the present study, the estimation method of the model is based on consolidated data. This integrated method uses time series data (2000-2020) and cross-sectional data of "developing countries (Iran, Brazil, India and China) and developed countries (USA, UK, Germany and France)".The software program used in this research is Eviwse9, Excel software program. The estimated models are presented in the form of multivariate linear regression models according to the research hypotheses. Based on the obtained results, the first hypothesis according to the results of the fixed effects model and the generalized least squares method, the economic freedom variable has a positive and significant relationship with the dependent variable (economic growth rate) and for one unit increase in Economic freedom variable, economic growth variable increases by 0.12 units. Therefore, at the 95% confidence level, economic freedom has a positive and significant effect on the process of separating economic growth from fossil fuels. For developed countries, the economic freedom variable has a positive and significant relationship with the dependent variable (economic growth rate) and for one unit increase in the economic freedom variable, the economic growth variable increases by 0.09 units. Therefore, at the 95% confidence level, economic freedom has a positive and significant effect on the process of separating economic growth from fossil fuels. Regarding the second hypothesis, in developed countries, the second hypothesis of the research was rejected, and in developing countries, except for a few specific years, The second hypothesis was rejected, that is, a positive relationship between economic growth and the amount of renewable fuel consumption was not observed.

   Household demography and changes in household dimensions are among the cases that have not been studied much. The studies that have been done in this field are mostly descriptive and small geographical scale. One of the demographic problems in today's societies is the decrease in the size of the household, which has led to changes in the structure of societies. A household is a group of people that is considered as a coherent and effective unit in economic and social dimensions in human societies. In fact, households are the central core of demographic, social and economic processes. For this reason, any decrease or increase in the household dimension is very important, because it can have different economic and social consequences. Based on this, in this study, the changes in the average size of the household in Iran and the influence of different variables on it were investigated. Factors such as human development, urbanization rate, cost of education and cost of energy consumption in the household affect the dimensions of the household. By adopting a panel approach and based on household statistical data, this study examines the relationship between household dimensions and human development and the changes that occurred in the average household dimensions in Iran and the factors affecting it during the period 1389-1399. The findings showed that during the mentioned period, the average size of the household has decreased, and in general, all the variables of this study have a negative and significant effect on the size of the household.

Monetary policies can cause wide fluctuations in economic variables. Sometimes these fluctuations can cause many problems, so that returning to the first point leaves destructive effects or at least requires a longer period of time. The evidence shows that there is a close relationship between the fluctuations of the total stock index and changes in monetary policies. As one of the main components of the financial market, stock market fluctuations are very important in the economy of countries, and therefore it is important to choose policies that cause less volatility. The monetary base, as a part of the overall liquidity, It is among the economic factors that influence the capital market. Therefore, it is necessary to be aware of the impact of monetary base shocks on the stock market. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary base shocks on the stock price index in Tehran Stock Exchange. This research has investigated this issue by using the time series data of Iran's economy during the period 1370 to 1399 and by using econometric techniques and with the help of Eviews software. To investigate the effects of monetary base shocks, in the first stage, positive and negative monetary base shocks were extracted by following Taylor's law and defining a simple model and estimated using the ordinary least squares method. In the next step, the generalized method of moments (GMM) was used to investigate the effect of variables on stock prices. The estimation results show that the effects of positive and negative monetary base shocks on stock prices are asymmetric, so that positive and negative monetary base shocks affect the total stock price index differently and the impact of negative shocks is greater than the impact of positive shocks.   

      AbstractGovernments apply monetary andfinancial policy during different periods based on the existing economicconditions. Therefore, according to the adopted monetary instruments, theeffectiveness of monetary policies is different. The important point is theimpact of monetary policies on other components of the economy. In the currentresearch, the relationship and impact of monetary policies on the exchange ratein Iranian economy during the years 1978 to 2021 based on time series data,using Eviews software and using cointiqrate techniques in econometrics,especially its dynamic auto regressive distributed the lag   model (ARDL) with distributionalinterruptions and error correction model are studied and investigated. Theresults of the regression model showed that the variables of interest rate,inflation rate, gross domestic product and the volume of money in circulationhad a significant effect on the exchange rate in Iran and were able to predictthe exchange rate during the period of time in Iran. These variables or eachother have been able to predict 95% of the variance of the exchange rate inIran. The long-term relationship estimation test also showed that allindependent variables had a significant effect on exchange rate fluctuations inIran.Keywords: Monetary Policies, Exchange Rate, Auto RegressiveDistributed The Lag (ARDL), Erorr Correction Model.

Identifying and Analysis of the factors affecting Acceptance of Business Intelligence in Kermanshah Hospital  

  Investors are always looking for investments with higher returns and lower risk. Stock returns are affected by market returns and specific factors of each company. Based on previous studies on the tehran stock exchange, this market is not very efficient. As a result, stock prices are not immediately affected by news and information; therefore, people get unusual returns by having more information and analyzing information. In such markets, people always follow people with specific information. On the other hand, recent studies have shown that the quality of disclosure reduces information asymmetry; therefore, in the present study, the effect of management short-sightedness and disclosure quality as two specific factors of each company on the synchronization of stock returns has been investigated. For this purpose, the data of 82 companies listed on the tehran stock exchange during the period 2016-2020 have been used as a research sample. The present study in terms of purpose-based classification is a type of applied research whose results can be used to inform policy makers to improve performance. In terms of classification, the present study is a retrospective description in terms of data collection. This research is also a descriptive (quasi-experimental) research on classification and test method of hypotheses, statistical analysis and analysis of causal analysis. On the other hand, to test the hypotheses, two regression models using gmm method and to analyze the data, eviews software version 19 and sata software version 5 were used. The results of the test analysis of the hypotheses of the present study have shown that the quality of disclosure has a significant and negative effect on the concurrence of stock returns. This result is in line with the results of kurdistan et al. (2019); lotfi et al (2018) and moradi et al (2021) are similar. While other findings of the study show that management short-sightedness does not have a significant effect on the synchronization of stock returns. This result is consistent with the results of khademinia et al (2015) and moradi et al (2015).

  Ensuring social justice and eliminatingpoverty and deprivation by creating a balance in the distribution of income andwealth among members of society is considered and emphasized in theconstitution. In the meantime, it is important to explain the relationship between moneylaundering and income distribution with economic growth. Therefore, in thisstudy, the relationship between money laundering and income distribution witheconomic growth in Iran has been investigated. In this regard, data from moneylaundering (drug discoveries), Gini coefficient as an indicator of incomedistribution and economic growth during the period 1986-2019, which was obtainedfrom the Central Bank and Statistics Center of Iran, to use the model toestimate Has been, In order to estimate the model in the presentstudy, ARDL method was used. The results of short-term estimates indicate apositive and significant relationship between the control variables of exportsof goods and services, capital and economic growth, also between the variablesof money laundering (drug discovery) and income distribution with economicgrowth, but statistically significant It does not have. According to the results of long-term model estimation, there is asignificant negative relationship between independent variables, moneylaundering and income distribution with long-term economic growth, so that witha one percent increase in money laundering and income distribution inequality,economic growth by respectively -2/504 and -6/977 are reduced. On the other hand, the findings indicate that there is a positiveand significant relationship between other independent variables (exports ofgoods and services and capital) with the dependent variable of economic growth,so that a one percent increase in capital and exports of goods and services,respectively. There is an increase of 4.283 and 13.945 percent in economicgrowth.

   Investigating the Functional Effect of Local Government on Employment and Investment (Case Study: Kermanshah Provincial Planning and Development Council)    Abstract The Planning and Development Council of the province is the highest decision-making and supervisory body in the dimensions of economic and social development, which should be in order to coordinate and monitor the management and development of comprehensive and sustainable investment in the province, pursue territorial justice, strengthen decentralization, increase the province's authority. And strengthen the role and position of the provinces in leading and managing endogenous and extroverted regional development and achieving the goals of the resistance economy, etc. The importance and position of the council in the development of the province as the engine of development is clear to all managers and experts; Therefore, the meetings and approvals of the council should be in such a way that it pursues the development goals of the province, and specialized working groups, as the powerful arms of the council, should perform their role well in the form of the tasks specified in the executive regulations. In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the functional effect of local government on employment and investment (case study: Kermanshah Planning and Development Council). The data used in this research are two parts. The first part includes reviewing the approvals of the meetings of the council and the economic, employment and investment working group under the council during the years 2016-2017, and the second part contains a questionnaire (researcher-made) of experts, experts and managers (council and working group). Findings showed that there is a significant relationship between local government and employment and investment. In other words, the council can create employment, improve the investment and business environment and vice versa. The results extracted from the perspective of experts and managers who are members of the council and the working group show that the local government has not been able to function effectively in the field of employment and investment. Therefore, it is necessary for local government decision-makers to emphasize the observance of the provisions of the executive regulations of the council without compromising, holding, managing and taking more responsibility within the powers of meeting members, synergy and participation of all members in order to achieve the goals of the legislature to solve problems. Provide employment and investment. As well as alignment with local government sub-groups (including Economic, Employment and Investment Working Group) to make decisions within the framework of upstream laws and regulations and in accordance with the provisions of the Executive Regulations of the Provincial Planning and Development Council in accordance with the duties and powers of the Economic Working Group. Employ employment and investment. In this regard, activating the supervisory role of the State Budget and Planning Organization on the activities of the council and working groups in order to implement the approvals of these institutions with upstream documents and provide feedback to optimize the actions and approvals of local government is necessary. Keywords: Local Government (Provincial Planning and Development Council - Economic, Employment and Investment Working Group), Institution, Planning, Decision Making, Decision Making, Supervision, Kermanshah Province

   Today, the ecotourism industry has become one of the important sources of income for the villagers. IT, as an empowerment and integrator of the value network in the ecotourism industry, can play a significant role in the development of this industry and in addition to increasing local employment, increasing the income of local people and capabilities of rural areas. This study aims to provide a model for the developing ecotourism industry in Iran with an emphasis on IT. This research is a qualitative research that has been done by content analysis and Delphi methods. In the content analysis method, the indicators of the initial model have been extracted and this model has been completed and tested by the Delphi method. The statistical population in the content analysis method included all texts related to the research topic and in the Delphi method were experts and university professors specializing in e-tourism and e-tourism industry which 30 experts cooperated until the end of the third round. Sampling method was done in content analysis method using counting and in Delphi method using snowball. Based on the findings of the first part of the research, 38 indicators have been identified, and in the second part, 24 indicators have been added to model, of which six of the identified indicators have not been agreed by experts. The research model includes 56 indicators, 34 components and 9 dimensions (including legal infrastructure, financial infrastructure, mobile commerce infrastructure, e-advertising management, content marketing, customer relationship management, e-HRM, local partnership and software infrastructure). In this research, an innovative model for the development of ecotourism industry is presented. Although many studies emphasize on tourist attraction, this model encompasses all three stages of tourist life cycle management, which include attracting, maintaining, and developing a relationship with the tourist. Also, the proposed model covers the four approaches existing in the theoretical foundations in the field of eco-tourism industry development, which include the four perceptual, behavioral, service and educational perspectives. The proposed model of this research has raised issues far beyond the aforementioned views. Attention to all the extracted indicators of this research model in all its dimensions is suggested as practical suggestions for the development of ecotourism industry.

Abstract: Iran is a country with rich oil and gas reserves. Existence of different conditions in the provinces of the country in terms of income and geography and implementation of the same energy policies for all provinces does not lead to good results and in some provinces causes energy waste.   In this study, we tried to find the correlation and causal relationship between energy consumption (kerosene, gasoline, gas oil, furnace oil, electricity, natural gas and total energy) and GDP for Iran as a panel and provinces separately. Review.   Also, divisions based on average per capita income, average energy intensity and average temperature of provincial centers and five regions have been done for the provinces of Iran, and for each of these divisions there is a correlation and causal relationship to The face is examined separately. The results of correlation analysis show that the correlation pattern between energy consumption and GDP is different in different classifications, for different energy carriers and at different time scales. In examining the causal results of Dummietser and Herlin in the short term, the results are different, but for the medium and long term, in most cases, there is a bilateral causal relationship. Examining this relationship will help to formulate the policies of the country's energy sector. In this study, the data of all provinces of the country in 25 provinces during 30 years (1367-1397) have been studied

   Abstract Despite the emergence of electronic banking technologies in the country's banking system and the benefits of its usage, the acceptance of this type of technology by customers has suffered from some kind of backwardness and has not grown as expected. In this regard, this study seeks to identify the factors that determine the motivation for accepting Internet banking. The data of this dissertation is related to the status of customers' use and motivation of Internet banking services. The collected information was done by distributing a questionnaire from 1397 to 1400 in Kermanshah. Also, the statistical population is customers between 20-49 years of banks in the city of Kermanshah. The method of sampling was simple random in banks and was a questionnaire. According to the research findings, the social characteristics of websites, online services, and average internet-device access positively affect trust. These factors make up 32% of the variance of Internet banking trust. The social characteristics of websites, compatibility with lifestyle, online services, average internet/device access, and trust, positively affect the ease of use and account for 48% of the variance of ease of using internet banking. The social characteristics of websites, online services, and average Internet/device access positively affect lifestyle adaptation, accounting for 58% of the variance of Internet banking lifestyle adaptation. The social characteristics of websites and online services positively affect the average Internet access/device, and these factors constitute 35% of the average Internet access / Internet banking device.

   Today, due to the significant role of marketing in various aspects and the need to recognize it, studies in this field are very important. Political marketing is also an interdisciplinary scientific aspect in marketing, sociology, political science and communication sciences due to the current complex and transitional conditions, and studies that can determine its dimensions have already attracted the attention of experts and activists in this field. Due to the lack of a specific background based on inquiries from the Irandac system regarding the effect of political marketing on increasing the soft power component, in this study, political marketing tools and soft power tools were identified and their effects were studied. The effect of political marketing is to increase the soft power component of the Islamic Republic of Iran. For this purpose, in this exploratory mixed research (qualitative and quantitative), first in the qualitative phase, semi-structured and in-depth interviews were conducted with 10 experts, and with the help of content analysis, categories of both interviews and secondary data including books, internal and external articles, Archives of interviews of news agencies, websites and virtual network channels, including the channel of the Center for Political Marketing Studies affiliated with the Center for Growth of Imam Sadegh (AS) University, were identified. In the quantitative phase of the research, by preparing a researcher-made questionnaire and conducting an expert survey among 46 people from the statistical population, assuming (N = n), the categories were tested and the validity of the questionnaire was valid in two parts: validity and reliability (Cronbach's alpha was calculated 0.895). done. Quantitative research results were obtained using   26 software based on Friedman test and the identified categories of qualitative phase were classified. These results showed that in order to attract tourists and foreign investors, the use of political marketing is necessary to increase soft power, and this component was ranked first. Accordingly, various types of diplomacy such as public, official, sports, cultural, communication, event, etc. diplomacy were considered as the most important international political marketing techniques and won first place. National self-confidence was the most important indicator of international political marketing, according to experts, which ranked first among other indicators. Incoherence of programs and strategies in the field of international political marketing was the first constraint on the use of international political marketing, and this constraint was recognized as the most important constraint among the existing constraints. The most effective foreign policy discourse of the Islamic Republic of Iran in order to take advantage of international political marketing, the discourse of international detente was identified with realism and purpose. Regarding the current situation and position of the country, the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran was historically and culturally ranked first, but the country's position in terms of export products was ranked eighth among the questions related to the current position, which indicates that in This is a weakness. Therefore, in the suggestions section, separately and for each question, based on the ranks obtained through Friedman test, practical and research explanations are included.

سرمايه يك عامل كليدي در رشد وتوسعه اقتصادي محسوب مي شود اما امروزه فرار سرمايه يكي از مشكلات اساسي كشورهاي در حال توسعه است. فرار سرمايه مي تواند ناشي از عوامل مختلفي مانند اقتصادي،سياسي و اجتماعي باشد در پژوهش حاضر به بررسي عوامل اقتصادي تاثير گذار بر فرار سرمايه با استفاده از داده هاي سالانه طي بازه 1358تا1395 پرداخته مي شود در سال هاي مورد بررسي سال 1390 داراي بيشترين ميزان فرار سرمايه از كشور است در اين پژوهش به بررسي عوامل اقتصادي نظير نرخ ارز، تورم، رشد اقتصادي، ماليات، ريسك مركب و كسري بودجه بر ميزان فرار سرمايه پرداخته مي شود. مدل اين پژوهش با استفاده از روش  GMM , ARDL برآورد مي شود. نتايج اين پژوهش طبق روش GMM نشان مي دهد كه رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه، تورم و نرخ ارز تاثيري مثبت، ريسك مركب تاثيري منفي ، نرخ بهره و ماليات فاقد اثر معنا داري بر فرار سرمايه است. طبق روش ARDL در بلندمدت اثر متغيرهاي رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه دولت، ريسك مركب، تورم و نرخ ارز همانند روش GMM است . اما اثر ماليات و نرخ بهره بر فرار سرمايه در بلند مدت مشخص نيست. در كوتاه مدت تنها سه عامل رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه و ريسك اقتصادي اثري معناداري بر فرار سرمايه دارند در بين همه عوامل ذكر شده رشد اقتصادي بيشترين تاثير بر فرار سرمايه را دارد.

   يكي از شاخص‌هاي مهم براي ارزيابي مصرف انرژي، شاخص شدت انرژي است. بنابراين بررسي شدت انرژي و عوامل مؤثر بر آن و شناسايي راه‌هاي كاهش شدت انرژي، داراي اهميت است. هدف اين مطالعه بررسي تاثير سرريزهاي سرمايه گذاري مستقيم خارجي بر همگرايي شدت انرژي در استان هاي كشور ايران طي دوره 1389 تا 1394 است. به منظور بررسي وجود   همبستگي فضايي   از آزمون هاي LMو Moran I استفاده شده است. شواهد براي مطالعه حاضر نشان مي‌دهد كه اثرات وابستگي فضايي شدت انرژي بين استان‌هاي ايران وجود دارد و همچنين نوعي همگرايي مطلق و شرطي شدت انرژي با سرعت تعديل نسبتا پايين بين استان‌هاي كشور وجود دارد. به اين صورت كه سرعت كاهش شدت انرژي در يك استان خاص، سرعت كاهش شدت انرژي در استان‌هاي همسايه را تحت تاثير قرار خواهد داد و كاهش شدت انرژي در استان‌هاي همسايه باعث كاهش شدت انرژي در استان خاص مي‌شود. همچنين با افزايش سرمايه گذاري مستقيم خارجي ميزان شدت انرژي كاهش مي يابد   و افزايش سرمايه گذاري مستقيم خارجي در يك استان خاص باعث همگرايي شدت انرژي و اثر سرريز آن به صورت بالقوه باعث همگرايي شدت انرژي در استان‌هاي كشور مي‌شود. اين نتايج لزوم توجه بيشتر به جذب تكنولوژي هاي جديد توليد در سرمايه گذاري ها   را بيان مي كند.   

   وجود تقاضاي گسترده براي تحصيل در جامعه ايران، به عرضه وسيع و بدون قاعده و برنامه­ريزي آموزش­هاي دانشگاهي منجر شده است. آمارها نشان مي­دهد كه ميليون­ها جوان در مراكز آموزش­هاي عالي مشغول به تحصيلند و آموزش­هايي مي­بينند كه لزوما متناسب با مشاغل موجود براي آنان نمي­باشد. به عبارت ديگر يكي از مسائل اجتماعي جامعه ايران ناهمخواني بين تحصيل و شغل است.

The present study has been done to investigate the Effectiveness of Group Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) on loneliness of Women Headed Households Covered by Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation. Method: Research type was semi-experimental with pre-test, post-test design with control group. Population of this study was all Women Headed Households Covered by Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation in Kermanshah year 2019. 30 man were selected through available sampling method and assigned in 2 groups (experimental and control) randomly which had a sample drop of 6. The experimental group received 8 training sessions for Group Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT). The research instrument include loneliness questionnaire Russell, Pilawa and Cortino (1980) and psychological capital questionnaire Luthans (2007). The gathered data were analyzed through ANCOVA. Results: The results showed that there was a significant difference between the two groups in terms of loneliness. Conclusion: Based on the results it can be said that The of Group Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) on psychological capital and loneliness Women Headed Households Covered by Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation is effective.

  One of the economic realities for each country is the existence of business cycles in GDP, as the fluctuation in the economy decreases, confidence toward future will increase, and the number of policy changes will decrease. Allocation of credits to different economic sectors is one of the factors influencing changes in real variables in the economy; the study examine the effect of credit on business cycle by using the data in macro-level over 1991-2015 and applying the vector autoregressive and ARDL bound. Evidence suggests that changes in business cycle is in same direction with credit, as well as the results of Granger causality, suggesting there is a two-way relationship between the credits and the business cycle. Also, the result of ARDL bound indicate that credits exacerbate the business cycle in the economy, analysis of variance analysis also shows that the share of credits in explaining the variation of business cycle is 45 percent. But the share of business cycle in explaining the variance of the forecast credit error is 25%. reducing volatility in the markets without value added such as the foreign exchange market and the desirable direction of financial resources towards high-growth economic sectors is one of the optimal policies for the Iranian economy.    

     Every economic activity requires energy consumption. Despite the fact that energy is considered as one of the factors of production and stimulus of economic growth, on the other hand it causes the emission of environmental pollutants. Iran is one of the examples of the growth pattern of natural resources, especially fossil fuels. Considering the end of the oil and gas resources of the country, from now on, there should be alternative sources of thought. One way of doing this is to using renewable energies instead of fossil fuels. The development and expansion of renewable energies contributes to the achievement of the countrys economic, social and environmental development goals and is one of the key factors in achieving sustainable development in any country. From the point of view of energy economy, it is logical to create diversification in energy sources and utilize a basket of different fuels. Also, production-related pollution is expected to decrease as well by increasing the use of renewable energy. In this research, the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran during the period of   1981-2014   is investigated using ARDL bounds and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of short-run estimation indicate a positive and significant relationship between capital, labor force and economic growth. There is a positive relationship between renewable energy per capita consumption and economic growth, but it is not statistically significant. In the estimation model, the coefficient of error correction sentence (ECT(t-1)) is 0.47, that is, In the current period, 0.47 is Modified for the imbalance of the previous period. According to the results of estimation of long-run model, there is a positive and significant relationship between model variables including economic growth and renewable energy consumption per capita. The results of the vector error correction model are used to investigate the causal relationship between the model variables. show that there is no causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the long run, and there is only one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth. But in the short run, there is a One way relationship between economic growth and renewable energy use, as well as a One way relationship between labor force and economic growth, renewable energy consumption and capital. Investigating the short-run dynamics of the pattern using instantaneous response functions showed that the shock eventually vanishes and often affects the response variable positively. Therefore, in the long run, shocks from independent variables, such as renewable energy consumption per capita, will be balanced against economic growth.  

  The achievement of economic growth and development is among the demands and goals of all nations. Achieving economic growth requires the creation of certain mechanisms in the political, economic, cultural and social fields. Powerful financial markets are among these mechanisms in the economic arena; One of the most important factors influencing the development of financial markets and their efficiency is the diversification of financial instruments. Due to the international financial limitations which has bee   imposed on Iran i   the past and recent years and Lack of Resources domestic banks as the most important Limitations financing in Iranian industries, which is one of the Islamic bonds suitable alternatives to be considered for Riba- based bonds. These bonds to be released mainly to for finance the government, businesses and organizations to government the most   innovations in The field of discussio   Paid and Islamic finance has been acquired   in recent decades. One of the innovations that can be said to compete with other similar tools in the conventional financial system and the release of Islamic bonds is Called Sukuk . In recent years, many developed countries, Muslims and non-Muslims in the Islamic countries are interested in developing sukuk as the best option for financial productivity beyond conventional finance. This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the rate of issuance of sukuk paper   These economic variables include GDP, CPI, PPI, budget deficit, and other macroeconomic variables.   The impact of sukuk issuance on changes in the key variables of Irans economy in total is based on ARDL models; The ARDL method relates short-term fluctuations of variables to long-term equilibrium values. These models are in fact a kind of partial modification models that measure the long-term equilibrium with a long-term relationship, effective forces in the short run, and the speed of approaching the long-term equilibrium value. And the results show that the changes of macro variables listed in the short and long term have a significant effect on the changes in the issuance of sukuk papers.  

Nowadays, with development of information system and interaction among financial markets across the world, crisis and boom transition in different markets is growing with a significant speed and with regard to developing economies in country like Iran; contagion of crisis from global markets, slows down the development of the domestic economy. This study examines the contagion in financial markets of Iran and figure out, how the positive and negative shocks moves in different markets, and it tries to present guidelines for policy makers in order to improve domestic economy to avoid or control the entrance of shocks in national economic. The sample includes time series data of commodity prices on oil market, stock market of Tehran, foreign exchange market and gold market over a period of 8 years (Dec, 2008 –Dec, 2016) with weekly sampling rate. In order to achieve mentioned goals, we utilized a combination of Ornstein Uhlenbeck and Continuous Wavelet Transform. It finds out that the starting point of contagion in the financial markets of Iran is oil market and the speed of synchronization between stock market and oil market is more than other markets and then the foreign market and gold market are in the next places. In next step, it finds that the coherence of markets in short-run is powerfull between oil market and other markets, but this coherence in long-run is just between oil market and stock market and foreign exchange market, and after global oil sanction in 2012 against Iran, the coherrence between oil market and stock and foreign exchange markets is growed in middle-run.

اقتصاد دانش محور مي­تواند بستر لازم براي جبران عقب­ماندگي­هاي تاريخي ايران را فراهم كند. براي دست­يابي به توسعه، تلاش­هاي بسياري از لحاظ علمي و سياست­گذاري صورت گرفته­است. نظريه­پردازان همواره در تلاش بودند تا الگوي معتبري براي تبيين عوامل توسعه كشف و عرضه نمايند. الگوهاي توسعه، ابتدا به انباشت سرمايه فيزيكي توجه داشتند. اما امروزه سرمايه­گذاري انساني و توانمندسازي مردم به عنوان اولويت اصلي در نظر گرفته مي­شود. در اقتصاد دانش­محور، سرمايه انساني اهميت بالايي دارد، زيرا توليدكننده دانش، همين سرمايه انساني و مردم هستند. از طرفي اين سرمايه انساني توجه را به سمت آموزش جلب مي­كند. زيرا سرمايه انساني بايد كارآمد و داراي مهارت بالا باشند. بنابراين آموزش نقش بسيار مهمي در دانش محور شدن جامعه ايفا مي­كند. آموزش بايد دائمي و فراگير باشد به گونه­اي كه موجب توليد دانش و نوآوري شود. توسعه پايدار نيز كه امروزه به موضوعي مهم براي جوامع تبديل شده، تنها رشد اقتصادي را نمي­پذيرد بلكه بر رشد اقتصادي پايدار در كنار حفاظت از محيط زيست، پايداري اجتماعي، توزيع عادلانه فرصت­ها، برقراري عدالت و كاهش فقر تأكيد دارد. براي تحقق توسعه پايدار بر مواردي هم­چون آموزش نيروي انساني، افزايش دانش و آگاهي مردم در جهت رشد در همه جنبه­هاي زندگي بخصوص رشد بهداشت و حفاظت از محيط زيست، افزايش دانش و پيشرفت تكنولوژي در جهت بهبود كارايي انرژي و كاهش مصرف سوخت­هاي فسيلي تأكيد مي­كند.  روش تحقيق در اين پايان­نامه به صورت توصيفي-تحليلي مي­باشد و مدل مفهومي پانل ديتا نيز به كار مي­رود. روش سنجي پانل ديتا براي كشورهاي در حال توسعه(ايران، كويت، پاكستان، اردن، سري­لانكا و لبنان) و كشورهاي توسعه يافته (كانادا، اسپانيا، ايالت متحده امريكا، فنلاند و دانمارك) در بازه زماني 1980-2015   با توجه به متغيرهاي patent (ثبت اختراع)، GDP سرانه، نرخ ثبت نام در آموزش دانشگاهي و متغيرهاي وابسته شدت انرژي و انتشار دي­اكسيد كربن سرانه انجام مي­شود كه نتيجه گرفته مي­شود كه ظرفيت­هاي اقتصاد دانش بنيان   بر تحقق توسعه پايدار اثر مي­گذارد.

Smuggling is always a problem for all economic period for the development of a healthy economy. Therefore, It is vital to fight and prevent smuggling. In Iran, every year a large amount of foreign goods smuggled entered and the group of valuable commodities such as gasoline is smuggled out of the country. In the meantime, Kermanshah province -with a common border with Iraq- has important role to deal with the phenomenon of smuggling in the country. Therefore, in this thesis investigates the smuggling and pores that hidden from experts and managers that fight with smuggling of experts, are. In this thesis, data collected from questionnaires and they analyzed by    software. The fundamental point in the questionnaire that is designed to be Fuzzy. Fuzzy logic or Fuzzy theory is a kind of logic that replace conclusions methods in the human brain. The results show that between executive and regulatory factors, economic, security and political and social and cultural as well as an increase in smuggling in the region is essential. The results show that between executive factors and regulatory factors, economic, security and political and social and cultural as well as an increase in smuggling in the province, has a essential role. In the first step to fight and prevent the smuggling of goods, should be coordination between the concerned authorities. This coordination can be cost-effective in fighting with smuggling and make progress. Other factors such as changes in regulations, creating appropriate economic structure, create the right culture and fight   with smugglers through police force will be the next step.

در اين مطالعه به بررسي تاثير ساختار بازار بر بهره وري و دستمزد نيروي كار با استفاده از روش گشتاور تعميم يافته پرداخته شده است. نتايج مطالعه حاكي از تاثير مثبت و معنادار تاثير ساختار بازار بر بهره وري و دستمزد نيروي كار است.

امروزه اقتصاد هاي مختلف، تجربه هاي زيادي در زمينه نوسانات اقتصادي بدست آورده اندكه شامل دوران هاي رونق و ركود اقتصادي مي باشد.با توجه به اين كه يكي از موضوع هاي بسيار با اهميت در حوزه اقتصاد كلان ،تثبيت اقتصادي ورسيدن به اهداف اصلي كلان اقتصادي از جمله   رشد اقتصادي،افزايش اشتغال و كاهش تورم مي باشد،بنابراين به منظور تحقق اين اهداف و كاهش زيان هاي ناشي از سيكل هاي تجاري، سياستگذاران و برنامه ريزان اقتصادي   همواره تلاش مي كنندتا با كنترل اين نوسانات اقتصادي تا حد ممكن اين اهداف را تحقق بخشند. بنابراين به منظور تحقق هرچه بيشتر اين اهداف، پيش بيني ادوار تجاري در اقتصاد كلان همواره داراي اهميت مي باشد و بخش مهمي از فرآيند تصميم گيري وسياست گذاري اقتصادي را در هر كشور تشكيل مي دهد.   در اين پژوهش از داده هاي فصلي طي دوره ي زماني بين سال هاي 1353تا1393 استفاده گرديده است و به منظور پيش بيني وقوع ركوداقتصادي 115 فصل را بعنوان مجموعه آموزش و به صورت نمونه گيري بدون جايگذاري و 49 فصل را به عنوان مجموعه آزمايش در نظر گرفته شده است.در اين پژوهش در مرحله اول ، ابتدا با توجه به مطالعات صورت گرفته در زمينه ادوار اقتصادي كشور ايران مجموعه اي از متغير هاي موثر بر بروز و پيش بيني اين ادوار معرفي مي گردد سپس با استفاده از تكنيك داده كاوي و روش طبقه بندي موثرترين متغير ها بر بروز اين ادوار شناسايي مي گردد. سپس در مرحله مدل سازي مدل درختان تقويت كننده، در ابتدا با توجه به مجموعه كل داده ها، پارامتر هاي تنظيم كننده   بر اساس معيار هاي دقت مدل Accuracyو kapa بر اساس بيشترين دقت و كمترين RMSE بهينه يابي شده ومناسب ترين مدل در مرحله ساختاري تنظيم مي گردد .سپس اين بهينه يابي در شرايط انتخاب موثرتن شاخص ها نيز صورت مي گيرد و مدل نهايي در زمينه پيش بيني ادوار اقتصادي تعيين مي گرد . در مرحله سوم   براساس بهينه يابي صورت گرفته از مدل و پارامتر هاي تنظيمي مدل، مدل نهايي پيش بيني تنظيم گرديده وفرآيند پيش بيني صورت مي گيرد ودر مرحله آخردقت پيش بيني هاي انجام شده توسط مدل نهايي   RTبه وسيله منحني ارزيابي عمليات گيرنده(ROC) ارزيابي مي گردد.كه نتايج نشان مي دهد كه مساحت سطح زير اين نمودار بالاي 70 درصد است و اين امر ملاكي از دقت بالاي پيش بيني مدل مي باشد . همچنين مدل BRT در مقايسه با دومدل پروبيت و پروبيت بيزين كه در اين پژوهش مورد بررسي قرار گرفتند دقت بيشتري دارد.  

امروزه اقتصاد هاي مختلف، تجربه هاي زيادي در زمينه نوسانات اقتصادي بدست آورده اندكه شامل دوران هاي رونق و ركود اقتصادي مي باشد.با توجه به اين كه يكي از موضوع هاي بسيار با اهميت در حوزه اقتصاد كلان ،تثبيت اقتصادي ورسيدن به اهداف اصلي كلان اقتصادي از جمله   رشد اقتصادي،افزايش اشتغال و كاهش تورم مي باشد،بنابراين به منظور تحقق اين اهداف و كاهش زيان هاي ناشي از سيكل هاي تجاري، سياستگذاران و برنامه ريزان اقتصادي   همواره تلاش مي كنندتا با كنترل اين نوسانات اقتصادي تا حد ممكن اين اهداف را تحقق بخشند. بنابراين به منظور تحقق هرچه بيشتر اين اهداف، پيش بيني ادوار تجاري در اقتصاد كلان همواره داراي اهميت مي باشد و بخش مهمي از فرآيند تصميم گيري وسياست گذاري اقتصادي را در هر كشور تشكيل مي دهد.   در اين پژوهش از داده هاي فصلي طي دوره ي زماني بين سال هاي 1353تا1393 استفاده گرديده است و به منظور پيش بيني وقوع ركوداقتصادي 115 فصل را بعنوان مجموعه آموزش و به صورت نمونه گيري بدون جايگذاري و 49 فصل را به عنوان مجموعه آزمايش در نظر گرفته شده است.در اين پژوهش در مرحله اول ، ابتدا با توجه به مطالعات صورت گرفته در زمينه ادوار اقتصادي كشور ايران مجموعه اي از متغير هاي موثر بر بروز و پيش بيني اين ادوار معرفي مي گردد سپس با استفاده از تكنيك داده كاوي و روش طبقه بندي موثرترين متغير ها بر بروز اين ادوار شناسايي مي گردد. سپس در مرحله مدل سازي مدل درختان تقويت كننده، در ابتدا با توجه به مجموعه كل داده ها، پارامتر هاي تنظيم كننده   بر اساس معيار هاي دقت مدل Accuracyو kapa بر اساس بيشترين دقت و كمترين RMSE بهينه يابي شده ومناسب ترين مدل در مرحله ساختاري تنظيم مي گردد .سپس اين بهينه يابي در شرايط انتخاب موثرتن شاخص ها نيز صورت مي گيرد و مدل نهايي در زمينه پيش بيني ادوار اقتصادي تعيين مي گرد . در مرحله سوم   براساس بهينه يابي صورت گرفته از مدل و پارامتر هاي تنظيمي مدل، مدل نهايي پيش بيني تنظيم گرديده وفرآيند پيش بيني صورت مي گيرد ودر مرحله آخردقت پيش بيني هاي انجام شده توسط مدل نهايي   RTبه وسيله منحني ارزيابي عمليات گيرنده(ROC) ارزيابي مي گردد.كه نتايج نشان مي دهد كه مساحت سطح زير اين نمودار بالاي 70 درصد است و اين امر ملاكي از دقت بالاي پيش بيني مدل مي باشد . همچنين مدل BRT در مقايسه با دومدل پروبيت و پروبيت بيزين كه در اين پژوهش مورد بررسي قرار گرفتند دقت بيشتري دارد.  

امروزه اقتصاد هاي مختلف، تجربه هاي زيادي در زمينه نوسانات اقتصادي بدست آورده اندكه شامل دوران هاي رونق و ركود اقتصادي مي باشد.با توجه به اين كه يكي از موضوع هاي بسيار با اهميت در حوزه اقتصاد كلان ،تثبيت اقتصادي ورسيدن به اهداف اصلي كلان اقتصادي از جمله   رشد اقتصادي،افزايش اشتغال و كاهش تورم مي باشد،بنابراين به منظور تحقق اين اهداف و كاهش زيان هاي ناشي از سيكل هاي تجاري، سياستگذاران و برنامه ريزان اقتصادي   همواره تلاش مي كنندتا با كنترل اين نوسانات اقتصادي تا حد ممكن اين اهداف را تحقق بخشند. بنابراين به منظور تحقق هرچه بيشتر اين اهداف، پيش بيني ادوار تجاري در اقتصاد كلان همواره داراي اهميت مي باشد و بخش مهمي از فرآيند تصميم گيري وسياست گذاري اقتصادي را در هر كشور تشكيل مي دهد.   در اين پژوهش از داده هاي فصلي طي دوره ي زماني بين سال هاي 1353تا1393 استفاده گرديده است و به منظور پيش بيني وقوع ركوداقتصادي 115 فصل را بعنوان مجموعه آموزش و به صورت نمونه گيري بدون جايگذاري و 49 فصل را به عنوان مجموعه آزمايش در نظر گرفته شده است.در اين پژوهش در مرحله اول ، ابتدا با توجه به مطالعات صورت گرفته در زمينه ادوار اقتصادي كشور ايران مجموعه اي از متغير هاي موثر بر بروز و پيش بيني اين ادوار معرفي مي گردد سپس با استفاده از تكنيك داده كاوي و روش طبقه بندي موثرترين متغير ها بر بروز اين ادوار شناسايي مي گردد. سپس در مرحله مدل سازي مدل درختان تقويت كننده، در ابتدا با توجه به مجموعه كل داده ها، پارامتر هاي تنظيم كننده   بر اساس معيار هاي دقت مدل Accuracyو kapa بر اساس بيشترين دقت و كمترين RMSE بهينه يابي شده ومناسب ترين مدل در مرحله ساختاري تنظيم مي گردد .سپس اين بهينه يابي در شرايط انتخاب موثرتن شاخص ها نيز صورت مي گيرد و مدل نهايي در زمينه پيش بيني ادوار اقتصادي تعيين مي گرد . در مرحله سوم   براساس بهينه يابي صورت گرفته از مدل و پارامتر هاي تنظيمي مدل، مدل نهايي پيش بيني تنظيم گرديده وفرآيند پيش بيني صورت مي گيرد ودر مرحله آخردقت پيش بيني هاي انجام شده توسط مدل نهايي   RTبه وسيله منحني ارزيابي عمليات گيرنده(ROC) ارزيابي مي گردد.كه نتايج نشان مي دهد كه مساحت سطح زير اين نمودار بالاي 70 درصد است و اين امر ملاكي از دقت بالاي پيش بيني مدل مي باشد . همچنين مدل BRT در مقايسه با دومدل پروبيت و پروبيت بيزين كه در اين پژوهش مورد بررسي قرار گرفتند دقت بيشتري دارد.  

امروزه اقتصاد هاي مختلف، تجربه هاي زيادي در زمينه نوسانات اقتصادي بدست آورده اندكه شامل دوران هاي رونق و ركود اقتصادي مي باشد.با توجه به اين كه يكي از موضوع هاي بسيار با اهميت در حوزه اقتصاد كلان ،تثبيت اقتصادي ورسيدن به اهداف اصلي كلان اقتصادي از جمله   رشد اقتصادي،افزايش اشتغال و كاهش تورم مي باشد،بنابراين به منظور تحقق اين اهداف و كاهش زيان هاي ناشي از سيكل هاي تجاري، سياستگذاران و برنامه ريزان اقتصادي   همواره تلاش مي كنندتا با كنترل اين نوسانات اقتصادي تا حد ممكن اين اهداف را تحقق بخشند. بنابراين به منظور تحقق هرچه بيشتر اين اهداف، پيش بيني ادوار تجاري در اقتصاد كلان همواره داراي اهميت مي باشد و بخش مهمي از فرآيند تصميم گيري وسياست گذاري اقتصادي را در هر كشور تشكيل مي دهد.   در اين پژوهش از داده هاي فصلي طي دوره ي زماني بين سال هاي 1353تا1393 استفاده گرديده است و به منظور پيش بيني وقوع ركوداقتصادي 115 فصل را بعنوان مجموعه آموزش و به صورت نمونه گيري بدون جايگذاري و 49 فصل را به عنوان مجموعه آزمايش در نظر گرفته شده است.در اين پژوهش در مرحله اول ، ابتدا با توجه به مطالعات صورت گرفته در زمينه ادوار اقتصادي كشور ايران مجموعه اي از متغير هاي موثر بر بروز و پيش بيني اين ادوار معرفي مي گردد سپس با استفاده از تكنيك داده كاوي و روش طبقه بندي موثرترين متغير ها بر بروز اين ادوار شناسايي مي گردد. سپس در مرحله مدل سازي مدل درختان تقويت كننده، در ابتدا با توجه به مجموعه كل داده ها، پارامتر هاي تنظيم كننده   بر اساس معيار هاي دقت مدل Accuracyو kapa بر اساس بيشترين دقت و كمترين RMSE بهينه يابي شده ومناسب ترين مدل در مرحله ساختاري تنظيم مي گردد .سپس اين بهينه يابي در شرايط انتخاب موثرتن شاخص ها نيز صورت مي گيرد و مدل نهايي در زمينه پيش بيني ادوار اقتصادي تعيين مي گرد . در مرحله سوم   براساس بهينه يابي صورت گرفته از مدل و پارامتر هاي تنظيمي مدل، مدل نهايي پيش بيني تنظيم گرديده وفرآيند پيش بيني صورت مي گيرد ودر مرحله آخردقت پيش بيني هاي انجام شده توسط مدل نهايي   RTبه وسيله منحني ارزيابي عمليات گيرنده(ROC) ارزيابي مي گردد.كه نتايج نشان مي دهد كه مساحت سطح زير اين نمودار بالاي 70 درصد است و اين امر ملاكي از دقت بالاي پيش بيني مدل مي باشد . همچنين مدل BRT در مقايسه با دومدل پروبيت و پروبيت بيزين كه در اين پژوهش مورد بررسي قرار گرفتند دقت بيشتري دارد.  

  Nowadays, labor productivity, as one of the most important factors affecting economic growth and development, especially in developing countries, has been emphasized by many economists. Due to the relative abundance of labor compared to other factors of production in developing countries like the Islamic Republic of Iran, investigating the factors influencing it is considered as one of the most important research priorities in such countries. The term of contracts signed with the labor can affect the quality of his work and ultimately affect labor productivity. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to examine the impact of type of labor contracts on labor productivity. Therefore, to investigate this issue, the model was introduced firstly. Then, Auto-regression with distributed lag (ARDL) method was used to estimate this model during 1986-2014. The results show that labor temporary contracts have negative effect on labor productivity both in the short-term and long-term and permanent contracts have positive effect on labor productivity both in the short-term and long-term. Human development variables, capital intensity, trade openness and governance indicators have positive effect on labor productivity in the long-term, but the variable of proportion of higher education employees to total employees has negative effect on labor productivity in the long-term.

  With regard to the existence of adverse effects of increase in the price of imported goods on domestic price index and thus its impact on inflation, it is necessity to consider the internal and external determining factors in the economic policy.Considering the relationship betweeninflation and trade exchanges, economists believe that global communication reduces the role of external factors in the process of increasing inflation and the role of the internal factors. In this article, we investigate the transfer of international inflation among the countries, including Iran, the United Arab Emirates, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Turkey with the use of VAR models and the specified data.In this regard, the reliability of the variables is examined using Dickey Fuller test, and then reaction functions and shocks effects were examined using vector auto-regression (VAR) model. Based on immediate functions in the VAR model for the years 1194-2015, we found that unexpected changes in inflation of China had negative effects on inflation in other countries, but as China changes effects are short-term and related to consumed goods, its effects are less evident. Similarly, the shock to other countries has statistically significant economic impact. The results show the internal inflation is affected by variable of imported inflation. We concluded that among the countries surveyed, the UAE imposed the highest imported inflation on Iran. It is due the fact UAE acts as commercial broker between Iran and other countries.

  Inflation is continuing, disproportioned and irregular increasing in general level of monetary prices of products and services. The ample increase of consumption, growing the population of the developing countries, the shortage of raw materials and energy and so on, can be causes of inflation. For this reason, there is this belief that with doing the monetary policies and actions and performing the traditional solutions alone, we cant deal with inflation correctly and find a remedy way for it. But it is essential that its roots will be known and a way being offer with considering all factors. In this research, the relationship between inflation and economic added value and market added value and market total output was study. In order to study this subject, the sample contains 89 accepted companies on the Tehran stock Exchange in the time interval 1386-1394 years was investigated. This research is classified as a descriptive research and its method to test statistical hypotheses is analysis data in the form of compounds. The obtained results of the research indicate that in confidential level 88% with help “the remove of redundant variables” test and estimation of regression model, there is a significant positive relationship between inflation and economic value added and there is a negative and significant correlation between inflation and market added value and total stocks output. Given to the results of this research that shows a negative relationship between inflation and the total stock output and the market added value, it is suggested that investors during analysis of investment projects in securities and financial assets pay special attention to the relationships between these variables, because considering these important factors lead to the choice of the optimal investment portfolios with lower risk and higher returns.

Electrical energy is one of the major carriers in the country’s economic growth and development, so it is necessary, as well as other sources of energy used properly. The household sector in Iran for a significan proportion of the power consumption, hence the comprehensive planning and effective policies in order to save electricity consumption, improve life   indicator   households and increasing public welfare is very important. In this study carried out by the description of government policies in the field of optimization domestic consumption of electricity, analysis and administrative problems identified the reasons for the deficiency of the policies. Timeframe research executive years second program until the middle of the fifth development program (1995-2013). The study also in order to collect data   and   information required to use the technique documentary studies and benefiting from quality content analysis method of bottlenecks and problems of the executed policies and analysis. The investigation of used shows that some problems such as lack of domestic electricity tariff reform with an increase in the cost of all, the lack of systematic oversight on how the standardization of household electrical equipment and lack of attention to standards and criteria industrialized countries in this context, the failure of the concept of building national regulations, numerous shortcomings in the system of building engineering and orientation of wrong policy system for stable culture caused despite numerous policy and planning, significant success in the field of domestic electricity consumption is not achieved. The final results of the study also showed that in order to adopt effective policies in future plans, special emphasis policy-makers on employing requirements such as the gradual elimination of the subsidies paid to the high consumption subscribers and attention to incremental-cascade system in electricity tariff reform, supporting the creation of reference laboratories in order to compulsory standards of energy consumption and investment and technological communications with developed countries and pioneer in standardization, the transfer up to date information and expertise from the engineering system organization to electricity engineers with holding training courses on a regular basis and periodically, and reform norms and electricity consumption patterns in the framework of cultural engineering will be very important.  

  This study examines barriers to economic growth on a growth pattern called Chasmas tripartite model and time series data from 1350 to 1390 is used.Dickey-Fuller test, Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron stationary variable and also test for parasites integration and Granger [1] for the long-term relationship between variables is used.The OLS method for estimating equations were used.The results will be analyzed gradually.

  AbstractSubsidy reform of energy carriers in subsidies reform plan model according to native conditions, diplomatic protection, social protection tools, proper executive capacities, subsidies reform speed and selecting proper time to reform subsidy will have different effects on macro variables of economy.Energy consumption variables, economic growth, Inflation and unemployment are economic Macro variables that are effected by subsidy reform of energy carriers in subsidies reform plan Model.Quantitative and exact estimation of energy subsidies reform effect on these variables based on scientific Methods has a special importance that addressed in this thesis.In this research, by using of time series data 1364-1393 age and co-collective Method in econometrics, dynamic self-explanation models with distributive interruptions and error reform tools. Effects of energy subsidy reform on energy consumption variables, economic growth, unemployment and inflation in long-term and short-term estimated for Iran economy.Findings from long-term and short-term model of energy subsidy reform effect on energy consumption show that there is a negative meaningful relation between energy cost and energy consumption and positive and meaningful relation between paid real subsidy and energy consumption in Iran.Results from short-term and long-term model estimation of energy subsidy reform effect on economic growth show that there is a positive and meaningful relation between economic growth and energy cost and also paid real subsidy coefficient in short-term and long-term is smaller than 1.Findings from short-term and long-term model estimation of energy subsidy reform effect on unemployment rate show that variable coefficient of energy cost in short-term and long-term is negative and meaningful and also tensional.Results from short-term and long-term model estimation of energy subsidy reform effect on inflation rate show that energy cost coefficient in short-term and long-term is smaller than1 and from another side, paid real subsidy variable coefficient in short-term and long-term is negative and meaningful.Also error correction coefficient for energy consumption models, economic growth, unemployment and inflation respectively is equal to -0/98, -0/85, -0/76, -1/0.Keywords: subsidy reform – energy carriers – energy consumption - economic growth – inflation rate – unemployment rate – self explanation with distributive interruption

 This study is paid to estimate of markup and return to scale of 19 Iranian manufacturing industries in two-digit ISIC codes during 1995-2007, simultaneously. For this purpose, used Structural approach. In this approach, according to Lopez et al. (2002) model, estimates product demands, prices (supply) and input demands equations in the form Simultaneou  Equations System, considering to panel data and non-linear Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). The results indicated that 79% Iranian manufacturing industries of price is more than marginal cost significantly. Also, 53% Iranian industries are experiencing increasing return to scale significantly.